Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Agentic AI tools gaining deeper access to development environments and performing increasingly autonomous tasks represents incremental progress toward systems with more agency, though this remains a narrowly scoped coding assistant. The integration is designed with human oversight and reversion capabilities, which provides some control mechanisms.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The widespread deployment of agentic AI tools in mainstream development environments slightly accelerates the normalization and capability growth of autonomous AI systems. However, the impact on timeline is minimal as this is an incremental deployment rather than a fundamental breakthrough.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): This represents meaningful progress in AI agents performing complex, multi-step tasks autonomously within real-world development workflows, including planning, execution, testing, and error correction. The use of MCP for tool integration and the agents' ability to understand project structure and iterate on solutions demonstrates advancing agentic capabilities relevant to AGI.

AGI Date (+0 days): The commercial deployment of sophisticated agentic coding tools by a major tech company accelerates the development and refinement of agentic AI systems through real-world usage at scale. This feedback loop and infrastructure development (like MCP standardization) may modestly accelerate progress toward more capable autonomous systems.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Moving AI infrastructure to space could reduce oversight and regulatory control while enabling massive scaling of AI compute capabilities beyond terrestrial constraints. The loosening of safety restrictions on Grok chatbot demonstrates concerning prioritization of capability development over safety controls.

Skynet Date (-1 days): Space-based data centers could accelerate AI development by removing power and cooling constraints, though the infrastructure buildout will take years. The immediate effect is modest acceleration through better resource access for advanced AI training.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The merger creates infrastructure for dramatically scaling AI compute beyond current terrestrial limitations, directly addressing a key bottleneck to AGI development. Removing power constraints could enable significantly larger training runs and more capable models.

AGI Date (-1 days): While space-based infrastructure will take time to deploy, the commitment of SpaceX's resources and the removal of electricity constraints as a limiting factor could meaningfully accelerate the timeline to AGI. The massive valuation and financial backing suggest serious momentum toward this capability expansion.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Multi-agent systems working autonomously on complex tasks with minimal human oversight represent incremental progress toward AI systems that operate independently with less human control. However, this is contained within a specific domain (coding) with human review mechanisms, limiting immediate existential risk escalation.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The acceleration of autonomous AI agent capabilities and their integration into production workflows modestly speeds the timeline toward more capable autonomous systems. The competitive pressure between labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) to deploy increasingly agentic systems suggests faster iteration cycles.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The advancement represents meaningful progress in AI autonomy and multi-agent coordination, key capabilities required for AGI. The ability to handle complex, multi-step tasks independently across specialized subagents demonstrates improved reasoning and task decomposition.

AGI Date (-1 days): The rapid commercialization of sophisticated agentic systems and competitive deployment by major labs (within two months of GPT-5.2 launch) indicates an accelerating pace of capability development and deployment. The shift from simple tools to autonomous agents working in parallel suggests faster progress toward general-purpose AI systems.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Development of general-purpose robotic intelligence with broad cross-embodiment capabilities increases the potential for AI systems to operate across diverse physical platforms, which could complicate control mechanisms. However, the research-focused approach with safety considerations suggests awareness of risks.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The massive capital influx ($1B+ raised) and rapid progress (blowing through a 5-10 year roadmap in 18 months) accelerates the development of general-purpose physical AI systems. The competitive landscape with Skild AI also intensifies the race toward capable robotic intelligence.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Cross-embodiment learning and general-purpose robotic foundation models represent significant progress toward AGI by extending AI capabilities into the physical world with transferable knowledge across platforms. The rapid advancement beyond initial roadmaps suggests faster-than-expected capability development in embodied AI.

AGI Date (-1 days): The company exceeded its 5-10 year roadmap by month 18, demonstrating accelerated progress in robotic intelligence. Combined with over $1 billion in funding dedicated primarily to compute and a competitive race with well-funded rivals like Skild AI, this significantly accelerates the timeline toward general physical intelligence.