Current AI Risk Assessment

25.66%

Chance of AI Control Loss

October 29, 2035

Estimated Date of Control Loss

AGI Development Metrics?

77.04%

AGI Progress

November 18, 2029

Estimated Date of AGI

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

April 21, 2026
+0.08% Risk

Anthropic's Mythos Cybersecurity AI Tool Reportedly Accessed by Unauthorized Group

An unauthorized group has allegedly gained access to Anthropic's Mythos, a powerful AI cybersecurity tool designed for enterprise security but potentially dangerous in wrong hands. The group reportedly accessed the tool through a third-party vendor on the same day it was announced, using knowledge of Anthropic's model naming conventions. Anthropic is investigating but has found no evidence of system compromise so far.

NeoCognition Raises $40M to Develop Self-Learning AI Agents with Human-Like Specialization

NeoCognition, a startup spun out from Ohio State University, has emerged from stealth with $40 million in seed funding to build AI agents that can autonomously learn and specialize in any domain, similar to human learning. The company aims to address the current 50% reliability problem in existing AI agents by developing systems that build domain-specific "world models" through continuous self-learning. NeoCognition plans to sell its agent technology primarily to enterprises and SaaS companies looking to build autonomous agent-workers.

April 20, 2026
+0.08% Risk

Amazon Invests Additional $5B in Anthropic, Secures $100B Cloud Commitment for Custom AI Chips

Amazon has invested an additional $5 billion in Anthropic, bringing its total investment to $13 billion, while Anthropic commits to spending over $100 billion on AWS cloud services over the next decade. The deal centers on Amazon's custom AI chips (Trainium and Graviton), with Anthropic securing access to current and future chip generations including the unreleased Trainium4. This follows a similar Amazon-OpenAI agreement and comes amid reports that Anthropic may seek additional funding at an $800 billion valuation.

NSA Deploys Anthropic's Unreleased Mythos AI Model for Cybersecurity Despite Pentagon Supply Chain Dispute

The National Security Agency is reportedly using Anthropic's Mythos Preview, a frontier AI model designed for cybersecurity that was withheld from public release due to its offensive capabilities. This occurs amid a conflict where the Department of Defense labeled Anthropic a "supply chain risk" after the company refused unrestricted Pentagon access and declined to enable mass surveillance and autonomous weapons applications.

April 19, 2026
0% Risk

OpenAI Pursues Acqui-Hires to Address Revenue and Public Image Challenges Amid Anthropic Competition

OpenAI recently acquired personal finance startup Hiro and media company TBPN in what appear to be acqui-hire deals aimed at addressing existential business challenges. The Hiro acquisition may help OpenAI develop consumer products beyond ChatGPT with stronger monetization potential, while TBPN could improve the company's public image amid recent controversies. These moves come as OpenAI faces intense competition from Anthropic, particularly in the lucrative enterprise and coding tools market where Anthropic's Claude appears to be gaining significant traction.

See More AI News

AI News Calendar

January 2025
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AI Risk Assessment Methodology

Our risk assessment methodology leverages a sophisticated analysis framework to evaluate AI development and its potential implications:

Data Collection

We continuously monitor and aggregate AI news from leading research institutions, tech companies, and policy organizations worldwide. Our system analyzes hundreds of developments daily across multiple languages and sources.

Impact Analysis

Each news item undergoes rigorous assessment through:

  • Technical Evaluation: Analysis of computational advancements, algorithmic breakthroughs, and capability improvements
  • Safety Research: Progress in alignment, interpretability, and containment mechanisms
  • Governance Factors: Regulatory developments, industry standards, and institutional safeguards

Indicator Calculation

Our indicators are updated using a Bayesian probabilistic model that:

  • Assigns weighted impact scores to each analyzed development
  • Calculates cumulative effects on control loss probability and AGI timelines
  • Accounts for interdependencies between different technological trajectories
  • Maintains historical trends to identify acceleration or deceleration patterns

This methodology enables data-driven forecasting while acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in predicting transformative technological change.