SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

28.25%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

August 1, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

80.55%

Estimated Date of AGI

August 9, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.03% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Etched Raises $300M Series C at $10.3B Valuation for Transformer-Optimized AI Inference Chips

AI chip startup Etched closed a $300 million Series C led by Sequoia at a $10.3 billion valuation, doubling its valuation in roughly seven months. The company has manufactured its custom inference chips via TSMC, booked...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Experts Doubt Distillation Claims Behind China's Kimi K3 as US Officials Allege IP Theft and Chip Smuggling

White House science advisor Michael Kratsios accused Chinese company Moonshot of building its open-weight LLM Kimi K3 by distilling Anthropic's Fable model and using export-banned Nvidia GB300 chips. AI researchers are s...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.04% RISK]

US Treasury Threatens Sanctions Over Alleged Chinese Distillation of Anthropic's Fable Model

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that sanctions and Entity List designations remain possible after a White House official accused China's Moonshot of industrial-scale distillation of Anthropic's Fable model a...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.14% RISK]
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

July 2026
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December 2025
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.