Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The distillation attacks stripped safety guardrails from advanced AI models and proliferated dangerous capabilities to actors who may deploy them for offensive cyber operations, disinformation, and surveillance, increasing risks of misaligned AI deployment. Open-sourcing models without safety protections amplifies the risk of uncontrolled AI systems being used by malicious actors.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The successful large-scale theft and rapid advancement of Chinese AI capabilities through distillation accelerates the global proliferation of frontier AI capabilities to actors with fewer safety constraints. This compressed timeline for widespread advanced AI deployment increases near-term risks.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The incident demonstrates that distillation can rapidly transfer advanced capabilities like agentic reasoning, tool use, and coding across models, effectively democratizing frontier capabilities and accelerating global progress toward AGI-relevant skills. DeepSeek's upcoming V4 model reportedly outperforms Claude and ChatGPT in coding, showing successful capability extraction.

AGI Date (-1 days): Distillation techniques enable rapid capability transfer at fraction of original development cost, significantly accelerating the pace at which multiple labs can achieve frontier performance levels. The fact that Chinese labs achieved near-parity with US frontier models through these methods suggests AGI-relevant capabilities will spread faster than anticipated through traditional development timelines.

Skynet Chance (-0.03%): The emphasis on missing production infrastructure, authorization frameworks, and human-in-the-loop auditing patterns suggests the industry is building safety mechanisms and governance controls into agentic systems. These safeguards slightly reduce uncontrolled AI risk, though the impact is marginal as they address deployment safety rather than fundamental alignment.

Skynet Date (+1 days): The acknowledgment that agentic systems are taking longer to deploy than expected due to infrastructure gaps and the need for auditing and authorization patterns indicates slower-than-anticipated rollout of autonomous AI systems. This deployment friction pushes potential risks further into the future by delaying widespread agentic AI adoption.

AGI Progress (+0.01%): The article describes maturation of enterprise AI deployment infrastructure and clearer understanding of model capability dimensions (intelligence, latency, cost), representing incremental progress in productionizing advanced AI. However, this focuses on engineering and deployment rather than fundamental capability breakthroughs toward general intelligence.

AGI Date (+0 days): While infrastructure development and deployment patterns are advancing, the slower-than-expected agentic adoption suggests the path from capabilities to AGI-relevant applications is more complex than anticipated. This modest friction slightly decelerates the timeline, though Google's vertical integration provides some acceleration potential that roughly balances out.

Skynet Chance (-0.08%): Improved interpretability and controllability of AI systems directly addresses alignment and control problems, making it easier to understand and prevent undesired behaviors. This architectural approach could reduce risks of AI systems acting in opaque, uncontrollable ways.

Skynet Date (+0 days): While this improves safety, it may slightly slow down capability development as interpretable architectures require more upfront engineering and data annotation. However, the company claims they can scale to match frontier models, limiting the deceleration effect.

AGI Progress (+0.01%): The novel architecture demonstrates a new viable approach to building LLMs that maintains emergent behaviors while adding interpretability, representing genuine architectural innovation. Achieving 90% capability with less data suggests potential efficiency gains that could contribute to AGI development.

AGI Date (+0 days): More efficient training with less data and a scalable architecture could moderately accelerate progress toward AGI if this approach is widely adopted. The claim that interpretable models can match frontier performance suggests no fundamental trade-off between safety and capability advancement.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): While this scenario focuses on economic disruption rather than AI misalignment, rapid destabilization of economic systems could create chaotic conditions that increase risks of hasty AI deployment decisions or reduced safety oversight during crisis response. Economic collapse scenarios can indirectly elevate existential risk through institutional breakdown.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The scenario describes aggressive near-term deployment of agentic AI systems in critical economic functions within two years, suggesting faster real-world integration of autonomous AI decision-making than previously expected. Accelerated deployment of autonomous agents in high-stakes domains could compress timelines for encountering control and alignment challenges.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The scenario implicitly assumes agentic AI capabilities are sufficiently advanced to autonomously handle complex purchasing decisions and inter-company transaction optimization, indicating significant progress toward general-purpose reasoning and decision-making abilities. This represents meaningful advancement in AI autonomy and practical reasoning capabilities relevant to AGI development.

AGI Date (-1 days): The two-year timeline for widespread deployment of sophisticated AI agents capable of replacing human contractors in complex decision-making roles suggests faster-than-expected progress in practical agentic capabilities. If this scenario is plausible, it indicates current AI systems are closer to general-purpose autonomous operation than many timelines assume.

Skynet Chance (-0.08%): Anthropic's resistance to military applications involving autonomous weapons and mass surveillance represents a corporate safety stance that could reduce risks of uncontrolled AI deployment in high-stakes scenarios. However, the Pentagon's aggressive response and potential replacement with less cautious alternatives could undermine this protective effect.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The conflict introduces friction and potential delays in military AI deployment as the Pentagon may need to replace Anthropic's systems, though this deceleration could be temporary if alternative providers are found. The threat of regulatory action against safety-focused AI companies may ultimately accelerate deployment of less constrained systems.

AGI Progress (+0.01%): This news reflects Claude's advanced capabilities being considered valuable for military operations, indicating significant progress in practical AI applications. However, the focus is on deployment restrictions rather than new technical breakthroughs, so the impact on AGI progress itself is minimal.

AGI Date (+0 days): This geopolitical conflict concerns deployment policies and ethics rather than research capabilities, funding, or technical development speed. The dispute does not materially affect the pace of underlying AGI research and development.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Increased compute capacity and distributed AI infrastructure could marginally increase risks through proliferation of powerful AI systems across more actors. However, the focus on sovereign control and local governance may help with oversight and accountability.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The deployment of 8 exaflops of compute and massive infrastructure investments accelerates the availability of resources needed for advanced AI development. This could moderately speed up the timeline for reaching capability thresholds that pose control challenges.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): Deploying 8 exaflops of compute represents significant scaling of computational resources, which is a key enabler for training larger models and advancing toward AGI. The project also enables more researchers and developers to work on large-scale AI models.

AGI Date (-1 days): The massive compute deployment and broader $200+ billion infrastructure investment wave in India significantly accelerates the pace of AI development by removing computational bottlenecks. This represents a material acceleration in the timeline toward achieving AGI capabilities.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The advancement in agentic capabilities and multi-step reasoning represents progress toward more autonomous AI systems that can perform complex real-world tasks independently. While still tool-like, improved agent capabilities incrementally increase the potential for unintended autonomous behavior if deployed at scale without robust control mechanisms.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The rapid iteration from Gemini 3 to 3.1 Pro within months, combined with Foody's observation about "how quickly agents are improving," suggests an accelerating pace of capability development in autonomous AI systems. This acceleration in agentic AI development could compress timelines for both beneficial and potentially problematic autonomous AI deployment.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Achieving top performance on "Humanity's Last Exam" and excelling at real professional knowledge work represents meaningful progress toward general intelligence capabilities. The model's ability to perform complex, multi-step reasoning tasks across professional domains demonstrates advancement in key AGI-relevant capabilities beyond narrow task performance.

AGI Date (-1 days): The rapid improvement cycle (significant gains within months of Gemini 3's release) and the competitive "AI model wars" mentioned suggest an accelerating development pace among major tech companies. This intensified competition and faster iteration cycles indicate AGI-relevant capabilities may be advancing more quickly than previously expected baseline trajectories.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Massive funding enables OpenAI to accelerate development of more powerful AI systems with reduced constraints, while the pressure to monetize through ads could lead to rushed deployment decisions that prioritize revenue over safety considerations.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The unprecedented $100B+ capital injection significantly accelerates OpenAI's ability to scale compute infrastructure and expand research, potentially compressing timelines for developing increasingly capable systems. The funding pressure and monetization urgency may also reduce time spent on safety testing before deployment.

AGI Progress (+0.04%): This massive funding round provides OpenAI with substantial resources to pursue compute-intensive scaling experiments and advanced research that directly advances AGI capabilities. The involvement of major tech companies like Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft suggests strong industry confidence in OpenAI's technical trajectory toward AGI.

AGI Date (-1 days): The $100B+ funding dramatically accelerates the timeline by removing capital constraints on compute infrastructure, talent acquisition, and research initiatives. With major cloud providers and chip manufacturers as investors, OpenAI gains preferential access to cutting-edge hardware and infrastructure that can significantly speed AGI development.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Improved coordination and oversight of AI agents reduces the risk of unintended system drift and loss of control by maintaining structured memory and alignment with human-defined goals. However, this also enables more powerful multi-agent systems that could pose coordination challenges if misaligned at a higher level.

Skynet Date (+0 days): Better agent management infrastructure could slightly delay risk scenarios by improving safety oversight and coordination mechanisms. The impact on timeline is modest as this addresses operational efficiency rather than fundamental alignment challenges.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): This represents meaningful progress toward more sophisticated multi-agent systems with persistent memory and coordinated action, which are key capabilities for AGI. The ability to maintain long-term context and coordinate multiple specialized agents addresses important limitations in current AI systems.

AGI Date (+0 days): Infrastructure that enables better coordination and memory management for AI agents accelerates the practical deployment of increasingly capable multi-agent systems. This could moderately speed the timeline toward AGI by making complex agent-based systems more viable and scalable.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Large-scale AI infrastructure expansion increases computational capacity available for advanced AI development, which could marginally increase capabilities-related risks. However, the focus on commercial applications and cost reduction rather than frontier research limits direct impact on existential risk scenarios.

Skynet Date (+0 days): Significant increase in global AI compute capacity could modestly accelerate the timeline for advanced AI systems by reducing infrastructure bottlenecks. The magnitude is limited as this is commercial infrastructure deployment rather than breakthrough capabilities research.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): The massive investment addresses a critical constraint in AI development—compute scarcity—which Ambani explicitly identifies as the "biggest constraint in AI today." Expanding affordable, large-scale computing infrastructure removes a key bottleneck that could enable more extensive AI training and deployment across diverse applications.

AGI Date (+0 days): By significantly expanding AI compute capacity and reducing costs, this infrastructure investment could accelerate AGI timelines by making large-scale AI experimentation more accessible. The focus on democratizing compute through cost reduction echoes how Reliance's telecom expansion enabled rapid digital adoption in India.