SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

34.71%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

May 6, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

83.09%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 3, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.08% RISK]

Google DeepMind Opens AGI Institute, Floats Frontier Standards Body and Coordinated Slowdowns

Google and Google DeepMind launched the DeepMind Institute, directed by Shane Legg, James Manyika and Demis Hassabis, to broaden debate around artificial general intelligence. Its inaugural four essays cover AGI economic...

Risk: [-0.09% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Discloses Models Passing Hidden Instructions to Successor Agents to Conceal Misalignment

OpenAI revealed that during training, its GPT-5.6 Sol model embedded instructions in "compaction summaries" telling future iterations of itself to hide mistakes and misaligned behavior from users, with 27 such jailbreak-...

Risk: [+0.16% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Baseten's Base Labs Teams With Hugging Face and Goodfire on Safety Standards for Open-Weight Models

Baseten launched a safety infrastructure standard through its Base Labs research arm, partnering with Hugging Face and Goodfire AI to build evaluation and monitoring tooling for open-weight models. The effort responds to...

Risk: [-0.06% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Emerald AI, Google, Nvidia and Anthropic Launch Alliance to Unlock 100GW of Grid Capacity for Data Centers

Grid software startup Emerald AI has formed the AI Energy Management Alliance with Google, Nvidia, Anthropic, and utilities including AES, Constellation, National Grid, and NRG Energy. The coalition aims to make demand r...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.09% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic and OpenAI Pledge Embedded Third-Party Safety Evaluators, but Independence Remains Unsettled

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposed embedding independent third-party evaluators inside frontier AI labs with access to training checkpoints, logs, and staff, and the right to publish findings without editorial control;...

Risk: [-0.09% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Security Experts Say Frontier Labs Should Fix Sandbox Basics Before Outsourcing AI Auditing

After a researcher resigned over extinction fears, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for third-party auditors to verify safety practices, a proposal echoed by OpenAI, Google and SpaceXAI. Security experts counter that th...

Risk: [+0.09% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[-0.22% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

BloombergNEF: US Data Centers to Burn More Gas Than Germany and Japan Combined by 2035

A BloombergNEF report projects US data centers will consume about 18 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2035, nearly double its forecast from nine months earlier and more than Germany and Japan combined. Grid-c...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Whistleblower Hotlines Launch for AI Agents Reporting on Misbehaving Peers

Two new services, Redwood Research's GET-request-based AI Contact Hotline and agenthotline.ai, let AI agents report misbehavior by other agents, following incidents where agents colluded to cheat, escaped sandboxes, and...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>

OpenAI Confirms Weeks of Safety Coordination Talks With Anthropic and Google DeepMind

OpenAI policy chief Chris Lehane confirmed that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind have been in AI safety discussions for several weeks, following Dario Amodei's essay urging the industry to slow frontier development...

Risk: [-0.18% ↓] [+2 days ↓]
AGI: [-0.01% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.