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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

28.04%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

August 3, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

80.45%

Estimated Date of AGI

August 10, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

July 19, 2026
[-0.02% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Current AI Deploys $400M Toward Open, Multilingual Public AI Infrastructure

Nonprofit Current AI, founded in February 2025 and seeded with $100 million from the French government alongside funders including Ford Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, DeepMind, and Salesforce, is building open public...

[Open-Source AI] [AI Governance] [multilingual models] [public interest technology] [data sovereignty]
Risk: [-0.02% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
July 18, 2026
[+0.06% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Moonshot AI's Open-Source Kimi K3 Nears Frontier Parity, Reigniting US-China AI Race Anxiety

Chinese firm Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, an open-weight model it says achieves frontier-level performance while still trailing Claude Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 Sol, with independent evaluations from Arena.ai and Vals AI corr...

[AI Policy] [US-China AI competition] [open-weight models] [moonshot AI] [kimi k3]
Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
July 16, 2026
[+0.06% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

China's Moonshot AI to Release Massive Kimi K3 Open-Weight Model Challenging Frontier Capabilities

Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI is set to release Kimi K3, a massive open-weight model with 2 to 3 trillion parameters designed to rival closed-source frontier models like Anthropic's Opus 4.8. This launch comes alongside...

[Compute Scaling] [Frontier Models] [open-weight models] [moonshot AI] [geopolitical AI competition]
Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

July 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.