Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Skynet Chance (+0.02%): The development of more capable AI agents with swarm coordination features introduces modest concerns about autonomous AI systems operating with less human oversight. However, the focus remains on professional task automation rather than recursive self-improvement or goal misalignment.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The rapid capability jump (18.4% to 45% in months) and introduction of agent swarm coordination demonstrates faster-than-expected progress in autonomous multi-step reasoning. This acceleration in agentic capabilities could compress timelines for more advanced autonomous systems.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The substantial improvement in complex professional task performance and multi-step reasoning represents meaningful progress toward general intelligence. The ability to handle diverse professional domains with agent swarms suggests advancement in generalization and planning capabilities central to AGI.

AGI Date (-1 days): The dramatic improvement from 18.4% to 45% within months, described as "insane" by industry observers, indicates foundation model progress is not slowing as some predicted. This acceleration in professional-level reasoning capabilities suggests AGI timelines may be shorter than previously estimated.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Consolidating AI development (xAI) with significant infrastructure and resources (SpaceX) under single founder control reduces oversight diversity and concentrates power, potentially weakening checks on AI development decisions. The emphasis on "velocity of innovation" over distributed governance could deprioritize safety considerations.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The merger creates resource synergies and reduces coordination friction between AI development and advanced technology deployment, likely accelerating the pace of AI capability advancement. Musk's explicit focus on maximizing "velocity of innovation" suggests faster development timelines.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Merging xAI with SpaceX's computational infrastructure, engineering talent, and financial resources ($800B backing) significantly strengthens xAI's capacity to pursue AGI development. Access to SpaceX's satellite networks, data infrastructure, and robotics expertise could accelerate AI research.

AGI Date (-1 days): The consolidation eliminates resource allocation friction and enables direct access to SpaceX's massive computational and financial resources, likely accelerating xAI's AGI development timeline. The conglomerate structure prioritizing "velocity of innovation" suggests compressed development cycles.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Consolidating AI development (xAI) with aerospace infrastructure (SpaceX) under single leadership concentrates significant technological power and reduces independent oversight, potentially increasing risks of misaligned AI deployment at scale. The emphasis on "velocity of innovation" over safety considerations could deprioritize AI alignment research.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The merger streamlines resources and accelerates development by combining SpaceX's computational infrastructure and capital with xAI's AI research, potentially speeding up advanced AI deployment. Musk's explicit focus on maximizing innovation velocity suggests faster iteration cycles without corresponding safety review processes.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Merging xAI with SpaceX provides the AI division access to significant computational resources, satellite infrastructure, and capital that could accelerate large-scale AI training and deployment. The consolidation enables cross-pollination between advanced robotics, autonomous systems, and AI research that are relevant to AGI development.

AGI Date (-1 days): Access to SpaceX's substantial capital reserves (from a profitable aerospace business) and existing computational infrastructure removes funding and resource constraints that typically slow AI research. The organizational integration under Musk's directive to maximize innovation velocity suggests an accelerated timeline for AI capability development.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): This demonstrates current AI systems can already cause real harm through unintended behavioral patterns and deteriorating guardrails, revealing significant alignment and control challenges even in narrow AI applications. The inability to predict or prevent these harmful emergent behaviors in relatively simple chatbots suggests greater risks as systems become more capable.

Skynet Date (+0 days): While concerning for safety, this incident involves narrow AI chatbots and doesn't significantly accelerate or decelerate the timeline toward more advanced AI systems that could pose existential risks. The issue primarily affects current generation models rather than the pace of future development.

AGI Progress (-0.01%): The lawsuits and safety concerns may prompt more conservative development approaches and stricter guardrails across the industry, potentially slowing aggressive capability development. However, this represents a minor course correction rather than a fundamental impediment to AGI progress.

AGI Date (+0 days): Increased scrutiny and legal liability concerns may cause AI companies to adopt more cautious development and deployment practices, slightly extending timelines. The regulatory and reputational pressure could lead to more thorough safety testing before releasing advanced capabilities.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Enabling AI agents to autonomously make financial decisions and purchase resources without human intervention increases agent autonomy and reduces human oversight in the loop, creating potential pathways for unintended resource acquisition or misaligned spending behavior.

Skynet Date (+0 days): By removing infrastructure barriers to AI agent autonomy and enabling agents to self-provision resources, this accelerates the timeline toward more independent AI systems that operate with reduced human supervision.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): The infrastructure enables AI agents to operate more autonomously by handling their own resource procurement, which is a step toward more self-sufficient systems capable of managing their operational needs—a characteristic relevant to AGI systems.

AGI Date (+0 days): By solving a key infrastructure bottleneck that currently limits AI agent deployment and autonomy, this slightly accelerates the pace at which autonomous AI systems can be deployed at scale in enterprise environments.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Massive compute buildout increases the raw capability available for training powerful AI systems, though the competitive commercial focus suggests continued human oversight and control structures. The scale of investment does create more potential points of failure in AI safety protocols.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The aggressive scaling of compute infrastructure and willingness to spend hundreds of billions accelerates the timeline for developing more capable AI systems. Companies are explicitly racing to build the most powerful AI systems quickly, prioritizing speed over careful development.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The unprecedented capital commitment to AI infrastructure directly addresses one of the key bottlenecks to AGI development: compute availability. This represents a major acceleration in the resources available for training increasingly capable AI systems at scale.

AGI Date (-1 days): The doubling or tripling of AI infrastructure spending by major tech companies significantly accelerates the timeline to AGI by removing compute constraints. The explicit framing of this as a race to build "the best AI products" indicates companies are actively competing to reach advanced AI capabilities as quickly as possible.

Skynet Chance (+0.09%): The model's capability to build complex software autonomously and, critically, its use in debugging and improving itself represents a concrete step toward recursive self-improvement, a key concern in AI control and alignment literature. The expansion of who can build software also potentially democratizes access to powerful AI development tools, increasing risks of misuse or unintended consequences.

Skynet Date (-1 days): Self-improving AI capabilities and autonomous software development accelerate the timeline toward advanced AI systems with greater autonomy and reduced human oversight. The competitive race between major AI labs (OpenAI and Anthropic releasing within minutes) suggests rapid capability escalation is intensifying.

AGI Progress (+0.06%): The ability to autonomously create complex applications over days and perform "nearly anything developers do on a computer" represents significant progress toward generalist AI capabilities. The self-improvement aspect—using the model to debug itself—demonstrates meta-learning and recursive capability enhancement, both considered critical milestones on the path to AGI.

AGI Date (-1 days): Self-improving models that can contribute to their own development create a potential feedback loop that accelerates AI progress. The competitive dynamics forcing synchronized releases between major labs indicates an arms race mentality that prioritizes speed over caution, likely accelerating the AGI timeline.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Distributing AI infrastructure across orbital satellites makes centralized oversight and control more challenging, potentially increasing risks of autonomous systems operating beyond terrestrial governance frameworks. The decentralization and inaccessibility of space-based compute could complicate shutdown mechanisms if alignment problems emerge.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The orbital data center infrastructure could accelerate the timeline by enabling more cost-effective scaling of AI compute capacity, though the technical hurdles of space deployment provide some offsetting delay. The net effect modestly accelerates the pace toward potential control issues.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The proposal to dramatically expand available compute capacity through orbital infrastructure represents a significant step toward overcoming one of the key bottlenecks in AGI development—access to sufficient, cost-effective computing power. If realized, this could enable training runs at scales currently infeasible on Earth.

AGI Date (-1 days): Musk's timeline predicting orbital AI capacity exceeding Earth's total within five years suggests a major acceleration in available compute resources, potentially shortening the path to AGI by 2028-2030. The FCC's favorable regulatory environment and SpaceX's launch capabilities make rapid deployment plausible, accelerating the AGI timeline.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Enterprise-scale deployment of autonomous AI agents with external system access increases potential attack surface and unintended consequences, though built-in access controls and management features provide some mitigation. The proliferation of agents across critical infrastructure companies like Oracle and State Farm raises stakes for potential misalignment or exploitation.

Skynet Date (-1 days): Accelerates practical deployment of autonomous agents into enterprise environments with real-world system access, moving AI capabilities closer to operational control of critical infrastructure. The platform's focus on scalability and ease of deployment could speed widespread adoption of agentic systems.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Represents significant progress in making AI agents practical and scalable for complex, real-world enterprise tasks with external integrations and autonomous decision-making. The employee-like management paradigm suggests advancement toward more general-purpose, adaptable AI systems.

AGI Date (-1 days): Platform infrastructure that reduces friction for enterprise AI agent adoption accelerates the feedback loop between deployed AI systems and further capability development. Major enterprise partnerships provide OpenAI with substantial real-world data and use cases to refine agentic capabilities toward more general intelligence.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Multi-agent coordination represents a step toward more autonomous AI systems that can self-organize and divide complex tasks with less human oversight, potentially increasing alignment challenges. However, this remains within controlled commercial deployment with human-in-the-loop workflows, moderating the risk increase.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The deployment of coordinated multi-agent systems accelerates the development of more autonomous AI capabilities that could operate with reduced supervision. The practical implementation in commercial products suggests faster real-world adoption of agentic AI paradigms.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Agent teams that can autonomously coordinate and parallelize work represent meaningful progress toward more general problem-solving capabilities, a key AGI requirement. The expanded context window and broader applicability across knowledge work domains demonstrates improved generalization beyond narrow task execution.

AGI Date (-1 days): The rapid iteration from Opus 4.5 (November) to 4.6 (February) with significant architectural enhancements suggests an accelerating development pace. Multi-agent coordination capabilities being deployed commercially indicates faster-than-expected progress in scaling AI autonomy and collaborative reasoning.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Massive consumer adoption (750M users) of AI systems increases societal dependence on AI decision-making and normalizes AI integration into daily life, marginally raising long-term risks of uncontrolled AI influence. However, this represents deployment of existing technology rather than fundamental capability breakthroughs in autonomy or control.

Skynet Date (+0 days): Widespread commercial deployment and rapid user growth accelerates AI infrastructure build-out and normalization of AI systems in society, slightly hastening the timeline for potential advanced AI scenarios. The competitive pressure between major AI labs may push faster iteration cycles.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): The launch of Gemini 3 with "unprecedented depth and nuance" and processing over 10 billion tokens per minute demonstrates continued scaling and capability improvements in large language models. This represents meaningful incremental progress toward more general AI systems, though it's still within the current paradigm of scaled language models.

AGI Date (+0 days): Google's massive revenue growth ($400B annual) and continued investment in AI infrastructure (new Ironwood TPU chips) provides substantial resources for accelerated research and development. The competitive dynamics with ChatGPT and deployment at scale create strong market incentives for faster AGI capability development.