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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

31.72%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

June 18, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

81.75%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 23, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

August 21, 2026
[+0.1% RISK]
[Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

Nvidia Research Shows Agent Scaffolding, Not Model Choice, Drove a Perfect ARC-AGI-3 Score

Nvidia published research arguing that the "harness" surrounding a model — memory handling, tools, runtime, and a supervisory agent — matters more than the base model for long-horizon agentic tasks. Using a custom harnes...

[Agentic AI] [Nvidia] [Benchmarks] [ARC-AGI-3] [agent harness] [long-horizon reasoning]
Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
August 20, 2026
[+0.08% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Binance Opens Live Trading Rails to Autonomous AI Agents via 'Agent OS'

Binance launched Agent OS, a platform letting developers connect AI agents — including those built on ChatGPT, Claude Code, and Cursor via Model Context Protocol — to its market data, trading, wallet, and payment infrast...

[AI Agents] [Model Context Protocol] [prompt injection] [binance] [autonomous trading]
Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
August 19, 2026
[+0.05% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Accidentally Strips Vetted Researchers of Relaxed-Guardrail Cyber Model Access

Several security researchers reported that OpenAI abruptly revoked their access to the Trusted Access for Cyber (TAC) program, which grants vetted users frontier models with fewer cybersecurity guardrails, with the compa...

[OpenAI] [Anthropic] [cybersecurity] [AI guardrails] [dual-use capabilities]
Risk: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Vivodyne Bets Robotic Human-Tissue Labs Can Fix AI Drug Discovery's Data Gap

Biotech startup Vivodyne argues AI drug discovery is bottlenecked by a lack of causal human biological data, and has built HIVE modular robotic labs that grow 20 kinds of human tissue and autonomously dose and monitor th...

[Training Data] [biotech] [AlphaFold] [ai drug discovery] [robotic laboratory automation]
Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

August 2026
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December 2025
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.