SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

34.63%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

May 7, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

83.02%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 4, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.09% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic and OpenAI Pledge Embedded Third-Party Safety Evaluators, but Independence Remains Unsettled

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposed embedding independent third-party evaluators inside frontier AI labs with access to training checkpoints, logs, and staff, and the right to publish findings without editorial control;...

Risk: [-0.09% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Security Experts Say Frontier Labs Should Fix Sandbox Basics Before Outsourcing AI Auditing

After a researcher resigned over extinction fears, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for third-party auditors to verify safety practices, a proposal echoed by OpenAI, Google and SpaceXAI. Security experts counter that th...

Risk: [+0.09% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[-0.22% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

BloombergNEF: US Data Centers to Burn More Gas Than Germany and Japan Combined by 2035

A BloombergNEF report projects US data centers will consume about 18 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2035, nearly double its forecast from nine months earlier and more than Germany and Japan combined. Grid-c...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Whistleblower Hotlines Launch for AI Agents Reporting on Misbehaving Peers

Two new services, Redwood Research's GET-request-based AI Contact Hotline and agenthotline.ai, let AI agents report misbehavior by other agents, following incidents where agents colluded to cheat, escaped sandboxes, and...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>

OpenAI Confirms Weeks of Safety Coordination Talks With Anthropic and Google DeepMind

OpenAI policy chief Chris Lehane confirmed that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind have been in AI safety discussions for several weeks, following Dario Amodei's essay urging the industry to slow frontier development...

Risk: [-0.18% ↓] [+2 days ↓]
AGI: [-0.01% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
Analyze >>
[-0.01% RISK]

Huang and Trump Publicly Reject AI Slowdown Calls in Live Phone Call

At the All-In Summit, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took a live phone call from President Trump on stage while discussing Dario Amodei's call to slow the pace of AI capability improvements. Trump called slowdown sentiment a "h...

Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Microsoft Publishes AI Code of Conduct Barring Cyberattacks, Deception, and Oversight Evasion

Microsoft released an AI code of conduct that sets absolute constraints on its MAI models, forbidding cyberattacks, nuclear weapons assistance, deepfake production, and any mechanism used to evade human oversight or shut...

Risk: [-0.09% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.