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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

AI Risk & AGI Progress Index

A cumulative counter of AI news pressure · as of Nov 5, 2026 15:48 UTC

Chance of AI control loss

37.4%

today −0.03 pp · since Oct 29 +0.12 pp

Estimated control loss

March 28, 2035

since Oct 29 1 day sooner

AGI progress

84.7%

today −0.03 pp · since Oct 29 +0.05 pp

Estimated AGI arrival

June 14, 2029

since Oct 29 no change

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Risk Trend Over Time

The chance of AI control loss over time; the daily values are in the news archive.

Latest AGI & AI News (Last 3 Days)

[-0.03% RISK]

Democratic Midterm Wins Fuel Growing Political Backlash Against AI Data Center Buildout

Democrats won full control of Congress in the November 2026 midterms, with voter anger over AI data centers emerging as a significant political force: exit polls showed nearly 80% oppose data centers near them and local...

Risk: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]
AGI: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]
Analyze >>
[+0.02% RISK]

2026 Midterms Deliver Broad Voter Backlash Against AI Data Centers, Threatening US Compute Buildout

In the 2026 US midterms, 38 of 44 tracked ballot measures restricting data centers passed, and Democrats who pledged tougher AI and data center rules won governor races in Texas, Arizona, Georgia and Ohio, putting roughl...

Risk: [−0.05 pp] [1 day later]
AGI: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]
Analyze >>

OpenAI Autonomous Pipeline Finds and Patches 948 Linux Kernel Privilege-Escalation Bugs

OpenAI built an autonomous pipeline that discovered, validated, and generated patches for 948 local privilege-escalation vulnerabilities in the Linux kernel. The effort demonstrates large-scale autonomous security resear...

Risk: [+0.05 pp] [1 day sooner]
AGI: [+0.03 pp] [1 day sooner]
Analyze >>
[+0.01% RISK]
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

November 2026
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October 2026
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September 2026
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August 2026
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July 2026
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June 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = the day's risk move

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is a cumulative counter of news pressure, produced by an automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: a large language model (currently Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5; the model has changed several times since 2025) scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: each score becomes a small move through fixed divisors, and the moves add up with nothing decaying — so the numbers mostly climb, because most news is scored in the alarming direction.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.