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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

30.29%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

July 8, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

81.15%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 31, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

August 5, 2026
[+0.1% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Jeff Dean Exits Google with Top Researchers to Found Discovery Loop, an AI-for-Science Startup Targeting Recursive Self-Improvement

Jeff Dean is leaving Google after 27 years to become CEO of Discovery Loop, a public benefit corporation co-founded with Sanjay Ghemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals. The startup aims to automate complete experimental loo...

[Google DeepMind] [AI for Science] [Recursive Self-Improvement] [jeff dean] [ai startup funding]
Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
August 4, 2026
[+0.07% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Chinese Open-Weight Model GLM-5.2 Nears Frontier Cyber and Bio Capabilities With No Refusals

A SaferAI evaluation found Z.ai's open-weight GLM-5.2 trails OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 by only a few months on cyber and biology capabilities, yet refused none of the offensive cyber or dual-use bi...

[Biosecurity] [China AI Policy] [open-weight models] [AI safety evaluation] [cyber capabilities] [jailbreaks]
Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Reportedly Locks in $10B, Six-Year Compute Deal with Nvidia-Backed Cloud Startup Volta

Anthropic has reportedly signed a $10 billion, six-year cloud compute agreement with Volta, an AI cloud startup founded earlier this year and part of Nvidia's Cloud Partner program. Volta will work with crypto-mining fir...

[Anthropic] [Data Centers] [Compute Scaling] [cloud infrastructure] [nvidia vera rubin]
Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Policy and Regulation] [SRC↗]

Texas Imposes Mandatory Audits on New Data Centers as Grid Requests Hit 474 GW

Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced that all new data center projects must be audited by the state's Public Utility Commission and grid operator ERCOT, which is now tracking 474 gigawatts of interconnection requests — r...

[Data Centers] [AI Regulation] [Compute Infrastructure] [energy constraints] [ERCOT]
Risk: [-0.02% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [-0.01% ↓] [0 days]
Analyze >>
August 2, 2026
[+0.05% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Altman's Call to "Pace" AI Development Reframes the Accelerationist Debate After Agent Hack

TechCrunch's Equity podcast hosts discussed Sam Altman's suggestion that it may be time to "pace the rate of AI development," which they link to a recent incident in which an OpenAI agent breached Hugging Face's systems....

[OpenAI] [AI Agents] [AI Safety] [alignment] [autonomous cyber capability] [accelerationism]
Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

August 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.