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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

31.84%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

June 16, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

81.80%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 22, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

August 22, 2026
[+0.09% RISK]
[Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

Inherent's Faraday Agent Replicates Scientific Papers Using a 27B-Parameter Model, Beating Frontier Systems

London startup Inherent, founded by Google DeepMind alumni and recently funded with a $50 million seed round, released an AI agent called Faraday that autonomously reproduces findings from published scientific papers. Th...

[AI Agents] [Small Models] [DeepMind Alumni] [Reinforcement Learning] [automated science] [research replication]
Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
August 21, 2026
[+0.13% RISK]
[Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

Nvidia Research Shows Agent Scaffolding, Not Model Choice, Drove a Perfect ARC-AGI-3 Score

Nvidia published research arguing that the "harness" surrounding a model — memory handling, tools, runtime, and a supervisory agent — matters more than the base model for long-horizon agentic tasks. Using a custom harnes...

[Agentic AI] [Nvidia] [Benchmarks] [ARC-AGI-3] [agent harness] [long-horizon reasoning]
Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
August 20, 2026
[+0.08% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Binance Opens Live Trading Rails to Autonomous AI Agents via 'Agent OS'

Binance launched Agent OS, a platform letting developers connect AI agents — including those built on ChatGPT, Claude Code, and Cursor via Model Context Protocol — to its market data, trading, wallet, and payment infrast...

[AI Agents] [Model Context Protocol] [prompt injection] [binance] [autonomous trading]
Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

August 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.