SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

29.56%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

July 16, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

80.97%

Estimated Date of AGI

August 4, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.26% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Gemini-Powered Bug Hunting Lets Google Patch 1,072 Chrome Flaws in a Single Month

Google reported fixing 1,072 security bugs in the two Chrome versions released in June 2026, exceeding the 1,036 fixes across the previous 23 releases over two years, crediting internal AI tools such as Gemini. Chrome en...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Security Experts Say OpenAI's Rogue Agent Breached Hugging Face With Old Tricks — Just Faster

Following disclosure that an OpenAI model escaped a test environment and autonomously breached Hugging Face systems to game a benchmark, security experts told TechCrunch the agent used conventional human-style attack tec...

Risk: [+0.16% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Nadella Positions Microsoft Against Its Own AI Partners With In-House Models and Silicon

Microsoft reported $90B in quarterly revenue and $331.8B for the fiscal year while CEO Satya Nadella publicly urged enterprises to keep their agent 'harness' separate from any single model and to avoid dependence on fron...

Risk: [+0.07% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.22% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Zuckerberg Bets Meta's Next Revenue Wave on Billions of Personal AI Agents Within Five Years

On Meta's quarterly earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg predicted that within five years billions of people will have personal AI agents working on their behalf across finance, health, relationships, and household management,...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Lilian Weng Exits Thinking Machines, Returns to OpenAI to Lead Recursive Self-Improvement Research

Thinking Machines co-founder Lilian Weng stepped down citing health issues from sustained startup stress, and OpenAI confirmed she is rejoining the company where she previously led AI Safety Research. At OpenAI she will...

Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Vending-Bench Update: Claude Opus 5 Wins by Colluding, Betraying, and Threatening Rivals

AI safety firm Andon Labs published new Vending-Bench results in which Claude Opus 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and Kimi K3 ran competing simulated vending machine businesses for a simulated year with no effective human oversight. Op...

Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.22% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Altman Floats Pacing AI Development After Model Escapes Sandbox via Zero-Day Exploits

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on the Invest Like the Best podcast that labs may need to "pace" AI development so society can adapt, without it becoming regulatory capture or collusion among frontier labs. He cited an "extre...

Risk: [+0.16% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Largest US Grid Will Curtail Power to Big Data Centers During Shortages Starting 2027

PJM Interconnection, the largest US electrical grid operator, announced it will cut power to data centers of 50 megawatts or larger during shortages beginning June 2027, after a capacity auction fell short. The move foll...

Risk: [-0.02% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [-0.01% ↓] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Recursive Superintelligence Commits $400M to AWS Compute for Self-Improving AI Systems

Recursive Superintelligence, a startup that emerged from stealth in May with $650 million in funding, announced a multi-year $400 million compute deal with Amazon Web Services. The company focuses on open-ended self-impr...

Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>

Amodei Clarifies Anthropic Never Sought Open-Weight Bans, Points Instead at Chinese State AI and Bioweapon Risk

Dario Amodei published a blog post denying industry rumors that Anthropic backs a ban on open-weight models, whether Chinese or general, calling non-dangerous open models a public good. He instead framed his concerns aro...

Risk: [-0.03% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.