SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING ▮

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

37.32%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

March 29, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

84.70%

Estimated Date of AGI

June 14, 2029
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Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.03% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Attackers Backdoor Official Anthropic Claude Extension on Cursor Marketplace, Exposing Up to 5,000 Developers

A malicious version (2.1.313) of Anthropic's official Claude VS Code extension was distributed through Anthropic's verified Cursor account for nearly 12 hours, installing a persistent SSH backdoor and harvesting environm...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>

Google's Suncatcher Prototype Space Data Center Satellite Comes Online, Runs Gemma 4 in Orbit

Google's Suncatcher prototype satellite, carrying a single TPU, is operational after launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 and ran DeepMind's Gemma 4 model to write a space-themed haiku. The test campaign will assess TPU performan...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[-0.09% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Amazon Plans ~$220B 2026 Capex, Mostly for AWS AI Infrastructure, Targeting $1T Cloud Business

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said AWS could become a trillion-dollar revenue business within five to ten years. To get there, Amazon expects roughly $220 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, mostly for AWS AI infrastructure, a...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Mistral Open-Sources Weights of Trillion-Parameter Mistral Large 4, Pitching It for Cyber Defense

Mistral has released the weights for its trillion-parameter Mistral Large 4 ("Le Chonk") on Hugging Face and via API, letting businesses and governments deploy it on their own infrastructure. The company claims performan...

Risk: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[+0.15% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Google Unveils Gemini 4 Carbon With Strong Coding and Cybersecurity Gains, Withholds Public Release

Google announced Gemini 4 Carbon, an incremental improvement over Gemini 4 Argon released two weeks earlier, claiming top benchmark scores in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity vulnerability detection and patching....

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Google DeepMind Unveils Gemini 4 Carbon with Leading Cybersecurity and Multi-Day Agentic Capabilities

Google DeepMind announced Gemini 4 Carbon, ranking #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and leading benchmarks for vulnerability discovery, exploitation, and patching, with internal runs persisting for days o...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

October 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic's Claude Opus scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.