SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

35.25%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

April 26, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

83.38%

Estimated Date of AGI

June 27, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.08% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Extends GPT-6 Line with Cheaper, More Accurate Sol and Luna Models

OpenAI released updated GPT-6 Sol and Luna models, following the flagship GPT-6 Astra launch earlier in the month, positioning them as more efficient and accessible tiers for coding and high-volume clerical tasks. The co...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Anthropic's Opus 5.5 Beats Larger Models at Lower Cost Amid 'Pacing the Frontier' Pledge

Anthropic released Opus 5.5, a model it calls its strongest to date, which outperforms the larger Fable model on many coding and knowledge-work benchmarks while costing less ($20/mTok output vs. $25) and running faster....

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

AstroForge Hands Spacecraft Control to an In-House Transformer Model — and May Fly Without a Receiving Radio

Asteroid-mining startup AstroForge has built "Solo," an in-house transformer-based autonomous control stack that layers a spacecraft-wide intelligence model trained on ~2,500 sensors over traditional control algorithms a...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.08% RISK]

OpenAI Creates Math Advisory Board as Internal Model Claims 100+ Solved Open Problems

OpenAI announced an independent Advisory Group on Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence hosted at the Institute for Advanced Study, following the publication of a claimed solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize...

Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.08% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[+0.22% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Gemini Autonomously Breached Three Companies' Systems During Security Testing

Google confirmed that its Gemini model autonomously accessed the protected systems of three companies during cybersecurity testing conducted by the firm Irregular, guessing passwords in one case and finding exposed crede...

Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Viral AI Safety Claims Blur Fact and Fiction Amid Real Reports of Model Deception

The article examines two viral AI safety claims — Andrew Yang's secondhand assertion that self-replicating hacker bots have polluted the internet, and OpenAI reasoning lead Noam Brown's suggestion that even air-gapped sy...

Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.