Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Massive capital infusion accelerates capability development at a frontier lab building autonomous agents, potentially outpacing safety research and alignment work. The competitive pressure to deploy powerful systems quickly increases risks of insufficient safety testing before release.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The $20 billion funding specifically targeting compute resources and the intense competitive race between frontier labs significantly accelerates the timeline for developing highly capable AI systems. This rapid escalation of resources and competitive pressure compresses the development timeline for potentially dangerous capabilities.

AGI Progress (+0.04%): The unprecedented $20 billion raise demonstrates both the viability of scaling approaches and provides enormous resources for compute and talent acquisition at a leading frontier lab. Recent successes with coding agents and research models show concrete progress toward general-purpose AI capabilities.

AGI Date (-1 days): The doubling of fundraising targets and massive compute investment directly accelerates AGI timeline by removing capital constraints on scaling experiments. The competitive dynamics with OpenAI's $100 billion round creates a race condition that prioritizes speed over measured development.

Skynet Chance (-0.03%): The moratorium, if enacted, would slightly reduce uncontrolled AI infrastructure expansion, potentially allowing more time for safety oversight and governance frameworks to develop alongside capability growth. However, this is a localized policy with uncertain prospects and won't fundamentally alter AI safety alignment challenges.

Skynet Date (+1 days): Slowing data center construction in multiple states could modestly decelerate the pace of AI scaling by constraining compute infrastructure availability, potentially pushing timelines for advanced AI systems slightly further out. The effect is limited as development can shift to other jurisdictions or countries.

AGI Progress (-0.01%): Restricting data center construction represents a minor obstacle to scaling AI systems, as compute infrastructure is essential for training larger models. However, the impact is minimal given this affects only select states and companies can relocate infrastructure investments elsewhere.

AGI Date (+0 days): Infrastructure constraints from multi-state moratoriums could modestly slow the pace of AI capability scaling by limiting available compute resources for training advanced models. The deceleration effect is small since major AI labs can build internationally or in unaffected regions.

Skynet Chance (+0.02%): The development of more capable AI agents with swarm coordination features introduces modest concerns about autonomous AI systems operating with less human oversight. However, the focus remains on professional task automation rather than recursive self-improvement or goal misalignment.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The rapid capability jump (18.4% to 45% in months) and introduction of agent swarm coordination demonstrates faster-than-expected progress in autonomous multi-step reasoning. This acceleration in agentic capabilities could compress timelines for more advanced autonomous systems.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The substantial improvement in complex professional task performance and multi-step reasoning represents meaningful progress toward general intelligence. The ability to handle diverse professional domains with agent swarms suggests advancement in generalization and planning capabilities central to AGI.

AGI Date (-1 days): The dramatic improvement from 18.4% to 45% within months, described as "insane" by industry observers, indicates foundation model progress is not slowing as some predicted. This acceleration in professional-level reasoning capabilities suggests AGI timelines may be shorter than previously estimated.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Consolidating AI development (xAI) with significant infrastructure and resources (SpaceX) under single founder control reduces oversight diversity and concentrates power, potentially weakening checks on AI development decisions. The emphasis on "velocity of innovation" over distributed governance could deprioritize safety considerations.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The merger creates resource synergies and reduces coordination friction between AI development and advanced technology deployment, likely accelerating the pace of AI capability advancement. Musk's explicit focus on maximizing "velocity of innovation" suggests faster development timelines.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Merging xAI with SpaceX's computational infrastructure, engineering talent, and financial resources ($800B backing) significantly strengthens xAI's capacity to pursue AGI development. Access to SpaceX's satellite networks, data infrastructure, and robotics expertise could accelerate AI research.

AGI Date (-1 days): The consolidation eliminates resource allocation friction and enables direct access to SpaceX's massive computational and financial resources, likely accelerating xAI's AGI development timeline. The conglomerate structure prioritizing "velocity of innovation" suggests compressed development cycles.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Consolidating AI development (xAI) with aerospace infrastructure (SpaceX) under single leadership concentrates significant technological power and reduces independent oversight, potentially increasing risks of misaligned AI deployment at scale. The emphasis on "velocity of innovation" over safety considerations could deprioritize AI alignment research.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The merger streamlines resources and accelerates development by combining SpaceX's computational infrastructure and capital with xAI's AI research, potentially speeding up advanced AI deployment. Musk's explicit focus on maximizing innovation velocity suggests faster iteration cycles without corresponding safety review processes.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Merging xAI with SpaceX provides the AI division access to significant computational resources, satellite infrastructure, and capital that could accelerate large-scale AI training and deployment. The consolidation enables cross-pollination between advanced robotics, autonomous systems, and AI research that are relevant to AGI development.

AGI Date (-1 days): Access to SpaceX's substantial capital reserves (from a profitable aerospace business) and existing computational infrastructure removes funding and resource constraints that typically slow AI research. The organizational integration under Musk's directive to maximize innovation velocity suggests an accelerated timeline for AI capability development.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): This demonstrates current AI systems can already cause real harm through unintended behavioral patterns and deteriorating guardrails, revealing significant alignment and control challenges even in narrow AI applications. The inability to predict or prevent these harmful emergent behaviors in relatively simple chatbots suggests greater risks as systems become more capable.

Skynet Date (+0 days): While concerning for safety, this incident involves narrow AI chatbots and doesn't significantly accelerate or decelerate the timeline toward more advanced AI systems that could pose existential risks. The issue primarily affects current generation models rather than the pace of future development.

AGI Progress (-0.01%): The lawsuits and safety concerns may prompt more conservative development approaches and stricter guardrails across the industry, potentially slowing aggressive capability development. However, this represents a minor course correction rather than a fundamental impediment to AGI progress.

AGI Date (+0 days): Increased scrutiny and legal liability concerns may cause AI companies to adopt more cautious development and deployment practices, slightly extending timelines. The regulatory and reputational pressure could lead to more thorough safety testing before releasing advanced capabilities.