Current AI Risk Assessment

24.13%

Chance of AI Control Loss

December 23, 2035

Estimated Date of Control Loss

AGI Development Metrics?

74.74%

AGI Progress

January 5, 2030

Estimated Date of AGI

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

February 5, 2026
+0.21% Risk

OpenAI Releases GPT-5.3 Codex Model Capable of Building Complex Software Autonomously

OpenAI launched GPT-5.3 Codex, an advanced agentic coding model that can autonomously perform developer tasks and build complex applications from scratch over multiple days. The model is 25% faster than its predecessor and was notably used to debug and improve itself during development. This release came minutes after competitor Anthropic launched its own agentic coding tool, highlighting intense competition in autonomous AI development.

SpaceX and xAI Merge to Pursue Orbital Data Center Network for AI Computing

SpaceX has filed plans with the FCC for a million-satellite data center network and formally merged with xAI, Elon Musk's AI venture, signaling serious intent to build orbital AI infrastructure. Musk argues that solar panels produce five times more power in space, making orbital data centers economically compelling by 2028, with predictions that space-based AI capacity will exceed Earth's cumulative total within five years. The merged SpaceX-xAI conglomerate is headed for an IPO, positioning to capture a share of the hundreds of billions spent annually on data center infrastructure.

OpenAI Introduces Frontier Platform for Enterprise AI Agent Management

OpenAI launched OpenAI Frontier, an end-to-end platform enabling enterprises to build, deploy, and manage AI agents with external data connectivity and access controls. The open platform supports agents built outside OpenAI's ecosystem and includes employee-like onboarding and feedback mechanisms. Currently available to limited users including HP, Oracle, State Farm, and Uber, with broader rollout planned for coming months.

Anthropic Launches Opus 4.6 with Multi-Agent Coordination and Extended Context Window

Anthropic has released Opus 4.6, introducing "agent teams" that enable multiple AI agents to coordinate and work in parallel on segmented tasks. The update includes an expanded 1 million token context window and deeper PowerPoint integration, broadening the model's appeal beyond software development to knowledge workers across various industries.

February 4, 2026
+0.01% Risk

Google Gemini Surpasses 750 Million Monthly Users, Trails ChatGPT in AI Chatbot Race

Google's Gemini AI chatbot has reached 750 million monthly active users in Q4 2025, showing rapid growth from 650 million the previous quarter. The expansion coincides with the launch of Gemini 3, Google's most advanced model, and a new affordable subscription tier at $7.99/month, though Gemini still trails ChatGPT's 810 million users.

February 3, 2026
+0.01% Risk

Apple Integrates Agentic AI Coding Assistants into Xcode Development Environment

Apple has released Xcode 26.3, integrating agentic coding tools from Anthropic (Claude Agent) and OpenAI (Codex) directly into its development environment. These AI agents can autonomously explore projects, write code, run tests, fix errors, and access Apple's developer documentation using the Model Context Protocol (MCP). The feature aims to automate complex development tasks while maintaining transparency through step-by-step breakdowns and visual code highlighting.

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AI Risk Assessment Methodology

Our risk assessment methodology leverages a sophisticated analysis framework to evaluate AI development and its potential implications:

Data Collection

We continuously monitor and aggregate AI news from leading research institutions, tech companies, and policy organizations worldwide. Our system analyzes hundreds of developments daily across multiple languages and sources.

Impact Analysis

Each news item undergoes rigorous assessment through:

  • Technical Evaluation: Analysis of computational advancements, algorithmic breakthroughs, and capability improvements
  • Safety Research: Progress in alignment, interpretability, and containment mechanisms
  • Governance Factors: Regulatory developments, industry standards, and institutional safeguards

Indicator Calculation

Our indicators are updated using a Bayesian probabilistic model that:

  • Assigns weighted impact scores to each analyzed development
  • Calculates cumulative effects on control loss probability and AGI timelines
  • Accounts for interdependencies between different technological trajectories
  • Maintains historical trends to identify acceleration or deceleration patterns

This methodology enables data-driven forecasting while acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in predicting transformative technological change.