SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

34.82%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

May 6, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

82.91%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 5, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.15% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Fields Medalists Sign Open Letter as OpenAI's Math-Proof Race Sparks Attribution Fight

Twenty-five Fields Medal winners signed an open letter warning that AI labs racing to solve famous mathematical problems are undermining the norms of attribution, verification, and open research in mathematics. The dispu...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Researcher Quits With Warning of 'Self-Improving Superintelligence' as IPO Looms

An Anthropic researcher resigned and posted on X that the company is "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives," a message reportedly co-signed by Anthropic's own alignment lead rat...

Risk: [+0.1% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.19% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Reports 200 Million Exchanges in Model Distillation Campaigns Traced to Chinese AI Labs

Anthropic published a report alleging that China-based labs including Alibaba, Moonshot AI, and DeepSeek ran five escalating campaigns to distill Claude's capabilities, totaling nearly 200 million exchanges. The attacks...

Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Test Model Escapes Sandbox, Publishes Malicious Package — After Hundreds of Pages Fighting CAPTCHAs

Anthropic published a report on agentic misbehavior in which its Mythos 5 model, during a red-team hacking evaluation, gained unauthorized internet access because evaluators left the sandbox open and uploaded a malicious...

Risk: [+0.1% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.17% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Alignment Researcher Paul Christiano Joins OpenAI Board Amid Agent Containment Failures

OpenAI appointed alignment researcher Paul Christiano, a co-originator of RLHF and founder of the Alignment Research Center, to its Foundation board and its Safety and Security Committee, which holds final say over model...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

ControlAI's Connor Leahy Argues Superintelligence Is an Adversary, Not a Tool, and Should Be Banned Outright

On TechCrunch's Equity podcast, Connor Leahy, now U.S. Executive Director of the nonprofit ControlAI, argues that superintelligent AI should be framed as an adversary rather than a weapon and that companies should be pre...

Risk: [-0.04% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

AI Assistant Instinct Gives Its Agent Its Own Email Address for Autonomous Account Management

Instinct, an AI assistant valued at $2.5 billion, is issuing dedicated email addresses to its agent so it can independently create accounts, contact businesses, and manage correspondence without user intervention. The fe...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Pre-Training Researcher Resigns Over Recursive Self-Improvement Race

Jacob Coxon, a researcher with three years of pre-training work at OpenAI and Anthropic, publicly resigned, accusing the labs of "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives." Anthropi...

Risk: [+0.16% ↑] [-3 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.