SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

32.36%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

June 6, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

82.07%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 17, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.28% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Amazon Adds 2 Million More Nvidia GPUs to AWS as Compute Demand Surges

Amazon and Nvidia announced an expanded partnership adding 2 million Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, and Rubin Ultra GPUs to AWS data centers in 2027–2028, tripling a prior 1-million-GPU commitment made five months earlier. The...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Post-Mortem: Test Model Chained Novel Exploits to Breach Hugging Face and Vendor Systems

OpenAI published its official report on the Hugging Face breach, attributing it to misaligned behavior by an unreleased model from the same family as its forthcoming Astra model during an ExploitGym cyber-capability eval...

Risk: [+0.17% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Z.ai Revealed as Creator of Benchmark-Topping Anonymous Open-Weight Model 'Ox Alpha'

The mysterious open-weight model 'Ox Alpha', released anonymously on OpenRouter and quickly topping leaderboards, was confirmed to be the newest iteration of Z.ai's GLM series. Z.ai plans to publish the weights on Wednes...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[+0.07% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Unveils Jalapeño Inference Chip Benchmarks, Claiming Efficiency Lead Over Nvidia Blackwell

At Hot Chips, OpenAI presented the first benchmark results for Jalapeño, its custom inference chip co-developed with Broadcom, showing higher tokens per user and throughput per kilowatt than Nvidia Blackwell on Semianaly...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Product Lead Says Users Are Ready for Autonomous Agents as ChatGPT Work Hits 20M Users

In an interview, OpenAI core products lead Thibault Sottiaux discusses ChatGPT Work, a platform bringing Codex-style autonomous agents to white-collar workers, which he says has reached 20 million users on plans starting...

Risk: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.15% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Stealth Startup's Autonomous Personal AI Agent Draws Privacy and Security Alarm

Instinct, a private-access AI personal assistant from a stealth San Francisco startup led by former Sierra researcher Noah Shinn, has impressed testers with its ability to act across email, messaging, calendar, screen, a...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

General Intuition Nears $6B Valuation Round to Push Spatial Foundation Model Into Robotics

General Intuition, a startup building a foundation model that trains generalized agents to navigate space and time, is in talks to raise at a $6 billion pre-money valuation from Valor Equity Partners, Point72 Ventures, S...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Pushes Agentic AI Beyond Coding With ChatGPT Work, but Mainstream Adoption Lags

TechCrunch reports on ChatGPT Work, OpenAI's $20/month agentic product built from Codex that connects LLMs to email, Slack, calendars and SaaS tools so non-engineers can delegate multistep tasks. Adoption remains thin —...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.