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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

28.21%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

August 1, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

80.52%

Estimated Date of AGI

August 9, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

July 22, 2026
[+0.03% RISK]
July 21, 2026
[+0.14% RISK]
July 19, 2026
[-0.02% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Current AI Deploys $400M Toward Open, Multilingual Public AI Infrastructure

Nonprofit Current AI, founded in February 2025 and seeded with $100 million from the French government alongside funders including Ford Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, DeepMind, and Salesforce, is building open public...

[Open-Source AI] [AI Governance] [multilingual models] [public interest technology] [data sovereignty]
Risk: [-0.02% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

July 2026
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June 2026
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May 2026
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April 2026
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March 2026
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February 2026
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January 2026
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December 2025
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November 2025
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October 2025
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September 2025
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August 2025
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July 2025
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June 2025
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May 2025
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April 2025
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March 2025
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February 2025
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January 2025
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.