SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING ▮

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

AI Risk & AGI Progress Index

A cumulative counter of AI news pressure · as of Nov 3, 2026 17:17 UTC

Chance of AI control loss

37.4%

today +0.01 pp · since Oct 27 +0.19 pp

Estimated control loss

March 27, 2035

since Oct 27 7 days sooner

AGI progress

84.8%

today +0.01 pp · since Oct 27 +0.19 pp

Estimated AGI arrival

June 13, 2029

since Oct 27 5 days sooner

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Risk Trend Over Time

The chance of AI control loss over time; the daily values are in the news archive.

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.01% RISK]
[+0.11% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic S-1 Filing Warns It May Soon Reach Recursive Self-Improvement Threshold

In its revised S-1A, Anthropic added risk-factor disclosures stating that it has already used AI to develop models whose capability leaps it didn't recognize at the time, and that it may soon meet its internal definition...

Risk: [+0.09 pp] [2 days sooner]
AGI: [+0.05 pp] [1 day sooner]
Analyze >>
[-0.02% RISK]
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

November 2026
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October 2026
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September 2026
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August 2026
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July 2026
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June 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = the day's risk move

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is a cumulative counter of news pressure, produced by an automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: a large language model (currently Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5; the model has changed several times since 2025) scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: each score becomes a small move through fixed divisors, and the moves add up with nothing decaying — so the numbers mostly climb, because most news is scored in the alarming direction.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.