Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Increased compute capacity and distributed AI infrastructure could marginally increase risks through proliferation of powerful AI systems across more actors. However, the focus on sovereign control and local governance may help with oversight and accountability.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The deployment of 8 exaflops of compute and massive infrastructure investments accelerates the availability of resources needed for advanced AI development. This could moderately speed up the timeline for reaching capability thresholds that pose control challenges.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): Deploying 8 exaflops of compute represents significant scaling of computational resources, which is a key enabler for training larger models and advancing toward AGI. The project also enables more researchers and developers to work on large-scale AI models.

AGI Date (-1 days): The massive compute deployment and broader $200+ billion infrastructure investment wave in India significantly accelerates the pace of AI development by removing computational bottlenecks. This represents a material acceleration in the timeline toward achieving AGI capabilities.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The advancement in agentic capabilities and multi-step reasoning represents progress toward more autonomous AI systems that can perform complex real-world tasks independently. While still tool-like, improved agent capabilities incrementally increase the potential for unintended autonomous behavior if deployed at scale without robust control mechanisms.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The rapid iteration from Gemini 3 to 3.1 Pro within months, combined with Foody's observation about "how quickly agents are improving," suggests an accelerating pace of capability development in autonomous AI systems. This acceleration in agentic AI development could compress timelines for both beneficial and potentially problematic autonomous AI deployment.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): Achieving top performance on "Humanity's Last Exam" and excelling at real professional knowledge work represents meaningful progress toward general intelligence capabilities. The model's ability to perform complex, multi-step reasoning tasks across professional domains demonstrates advancement in key AGI-relevant capabilities beyond narrow task performance.

AGI Date (-1 days): The rapid improvement cycle (significant gains within months of Gemini 3's release) and the competitive "AI model wars" mentioned suggest an accelerating development pace among major tech companies. This intensified competition and faster iteration cycles indicate AGI-relevant capabilities may be advancing more quickly than previously expected baseline trajectories.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Massive funding enables OpenAI to accelerate development of more powerful AI systems with reduced constraints, while the pressure to monetize through ads could lead to rushed deployment decisions that prioritize revenue over safety considerations.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The unprecedented $100B+ capital injection significantly accelerates OpenAI's ability to scale compute infrastructure and expand research, potentially compressing timelines for developing increasingly capable systems. The funding pressure and monetization urgency may also reduce time spent on safety testing before deployment.

AGI Progress (+0.04%): This massive funding round provides OpenAI with substantial resources to pursue compute-intensive scaling experiments and advanced research that directly advances AGI capabilities. The involvement of major tech companies like Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft suggests strong industry confidence in OpenAI's technical trajectory toward AGI.

AGI Date (-1 days): The $100B+ funding dramatically accelerates the timeline by removing capital constraints on compute infrastructure, talent acquisition, and research initiatives. With major cloud providers and chip manufacturers as investors, OpenAI gains preferential access to cutting-edge hardware and infrastructure that can significantly speed AGI development.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Improved coordination and oversight of AI agents reduces the risk of unintended system drift and loss of control by maintaining structured memory and alignment with human-defined goals. However, this also enables more powerful multi-agent systems that could pose coordination challenges if misaligned at a higher level.

Skynet Date (+0 days): Better agent management infrastructure could slightly delay risk scenarios by improving safety oversight and coordination mechanisms. The impact on timeline is modest as this addresses operational efficiency rather than fundamental alignment challenges.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): This represents meaningful progress toward more sophisticated multi-agent systems with persistent memory and coordinated action, which are key capabilities for AGI. The ability to maintain long-term context and coordinate multiple specialized agents addresses important limitations in current AI systems.

AGI Date (+0 days): Infrastructure that enables better coordination and memory management for AI agents accelerates the practical deployment of increasingly capable multi-agent systems. This could moderately speed the timeline toward AGI by making complex agent-based systems more viable and scalable.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Large-scale AI infrastructure expansion increases computational capacity available for advanced AI development, which could marginally increase capabilities-related risks. However, the focus on commercial applications and cost reduction rather than frontier research limits direct impact on existential risk scenarios.

Skynet Date (+0 days): Significant increase in global AI compute capacity could modestly accelerate the timeline for advanced AI systems by reducing infrastructure bottlenecks. The magnitude is limited as this is commercial infrastructure deployment rather than breakthrough capabilities research.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): The massive investment addresses a critical constraint in AI development—compute scarcity—which Ambani explicitly identifies as the "biggest constraint in AI today." Expanding affordable, large-scale computing infrastructure removes a key bottleneck that could enable more extensive AI training and deployment across diverse applications.

AGI Date (+0 days): By significantly expanding AI compute capacity and reducing costs, this infrastructure investment could accelerate AGI timelines by making large-scale AI experimentation more accessible. The focus on democratizing compute through cost reduction echoes how Reliance's telecom expansion enabled rapid digital adoption in India.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): World models that understand physics and spatial relationships represent progress in embodied AI, which could eventually contribute to more capable autonomous systems. However, the current application is focused on creative design tools with human oversight, presenting minimal immediate control or alignment concerns.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The commercial investment and integration into production workflows accelerates the development and deployment of spatial reasoning AI systems, though the narrow creative design focus limits the pace of development toward more general autonomous capabilities.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): World models that can reason about geometry, physics, and dynamics represent meaningful progress toward AI systems with grounded understanding of the physical world, a key component of general intelligence. The ability to generate coherent 3D environments demonstrates advancement in spatial reasoning and multi-modal understanding.

AGI Date (+0 days): The $200 million investment and potential $5 billion valuation signals substantial capital flowing into spatial AI research and accelerates the commercialization of physical world understanding. This funding and partnership with a major software company will likely speed development of more sophisticated world models.