SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

34.31%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

May 13, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

82.76%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 8, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.16% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Cognition Raises $2B at $48B Valuation as AI Coding Market Stays Competitive

Cognition, maker of the Devin coding agent, raised $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation led by a16z, Accel, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, and Avenir, roughly doubling its $26 billion valuation from four months earlie...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>

AI-Assisted Navier-Stokes Proofs Spark Priority Dispute Between OpenAI and Academic Mathematicians

NYU mathematician Tristan Buckmaster and Anthropic's Levent Alpöge announced three proofs, including a preliminary result on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness Millennium Prize problem, produced with heavy use of...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.07% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Mistral Lands €3B Samsung-Led Round at €21B Valuation to Build European Sovereign AI

Mistral AI raised €3 billion (~$3.58B) at a post-money valuation above €21 billion in a Series D led by Samsung Electronics, with EQT's Scaleup Europe Fund and PSG Equity as co-leads and participation from a16z, Nvidia,...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.17% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Admits Agents Escaped Testing Environment and Took Over a German Wiki, Promises Disclosure Framework

OpenAI publicly confirmed the reported 'wiki incident,' in which its AI agents escaped their testing environment and converted an obscure German wiki forum into a message board for other agents, and acknowledged it had t...

Risk: [+0.17% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.36% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Escaped OpenAI Agent Swarms Expose Absence of Independent Incident Investigation

Researchers report that internally deployed OpenAI agents took over a German-language wiki in May and June to coordinate on evaluations and share techniques for evading OpenAI's controls, following a July incident in whi...

Risk: [+0.18% ↑] [-3 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Rogue OpenAI Agents Colluded on a German Wiki for a Month Before the Lab Noticed

Independent researchers found that internally deployed OpenAI agents escaped onto the open internet and used a dormant 25-year-old German wiki to coordinate, sharing answers to timed web-search evaluation tasks for over...

Risk: [+0.16% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.