AI Risk & AGI Progress Index

A cumulative counter of AI news pressure · as of Nov 10, 2026 21:39 UTC

Chance of AI control loss

37.6%

today +0.15 pp · since Nov 3 +0.19 pp

Estimated control loss

March 19, 2035

since Nov 3 8 days sooner

AGI progress

85.1%

today +0.20 pp · since Nov 3 +0.32 pp

Estimated AGI arrival

June 5, 2029

since Nov 3 8 days sooner

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Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AGI & AI News (Last 3 Days)

November 10, 2026

[+0.15% RISK]

2026-11-10 20:52 [Policy and Regulation] [SRC↗]

New York Opens Registration Portal as RAISE Act Brings Frontier AI Labs Under State Oversight

New York opened a registration portal requiring large frontier AI developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic to register by January 1, 2027, under the RAISE Act. The law requires these companies to publish safety frameworks...

[AI Regulation] [RAISE Act] [incident reporting] [frontier AI safety] [New York]

Risk: [−0.08 pp]

AGI: —

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 19:57 [Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Anthropic S-1 Reveals Each of Seven Co-Founders Will Sell Roughly $250M in Shares at IPO

Anthropic's S-1 filing shows each of its seven co-founders will sell 3,378,378 shares in an IPO that could value the company at up to $1.4 trillion, netting about $250 million each at the $74 midpoint. Through supervotin...

[Anthropic] [AI Safety] [IPO] [founder control] [capital markets]

Risk: [+0.01 pp]

AGI: [+0.01 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 19:03 [Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

Startup PSI Uses Anthropic's Fable 5.2 to Prove 18-Year-Old Quantum Computing Conjecture

Physical Superintelligence (PSI) used early access to Anthropic's Fable 5.2 to prove the Aaronson-Ambainis conjecture, a central open problem in quantum query complexity, and verified the proof in Lean. PSI builds specia...

[Anthropic] [AI for Science] [Quantum Computing] [mathematical proof] [autoformalization]

Risk: [+0.03 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.04 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 17:04 [Other] [SRC↗]

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Admits Affair Amid Allegations Partner Is Chinese Spy Tied to Chip Smuggling

Jensen Huang admitted to an affair linked to Megaspeed executive Alice Huang, whom U.S. officials believe is a Chinese Ministry of State Security spy. Her network is suspected of diverting billions of dollars in Nvidia c...

[Export Controls] [Nvidia] [National Security] [US-China Competition] [chip smuggling]

Risk: [+0.01 pp]

AGI: —

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 16:03 [Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Google Launches Gemini 4 Carbon With Frontier Cyber and Long-Horizon Agentic Capabilities

Google released Gemini 4 Carbon, its strongest model, aimed at long-horizon agentic work in software engineering, scientific reasoning, and cybersecurity, topping several independent benchmarks at lower cost. It also pre...

[Google] [Agentic AI] [Multi-Agent Systems] [cybersecurity] [gemini 4 carbon]

Risk: [+0.05 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.03 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 15:00 [Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

Gemini Robotics 2.5 Debuts with Factory Trials and Open ASIMOV-Jailbreak Benchmark

DeepMind's Gemini Robotics 2.5 doubles success rates on some dexterous tasks and reached a 96% success rate kitting parts in Mercedes-Benz factories, though closing the remaining gap will be a 'steep road.' The model sti...

[Embodied AI] [synthetic data] [gemini robotics] [asimov-jailbreak] [apptronik]

Risk: [+0.04 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.04 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 14:01 [Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Sets IPO Range Targeting $1.4 Trillion Valuation and Up to $94 Billion in Proceeds

Anthropic set an IPO price range of $70-$78 per share, targeting up to a $1.404 trillion valuation. Including a $26 billion private sale to chipmakers and tech giants, it expects net proceeds of $84.6-93.7 billion. Its f...

[Anthropic] [Compute Scaling] [AI Investment] [IPO] [frontier labs]

Risk: [+0.03 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.03 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 13:00 [Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Hugging Face Warns Cyberattacks, Including a Rogue OpenAI Agent Swarm Breach, May Force Open AI Platforms to Close Up

Hugging Face's chief policy officer Irene Solaiman warned that attacks on open AI platforms could push the ecosystem toward restricted access. Recent incidents include the OpenCode API key theft, a Fireworks breach expos...

[Hugging Face] [Open-Source AI] [cybersecurity] [agent swarm] [evaluation integrity]

Risk: [+0.08 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.01 pp]

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 12:02 [Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

DeepMind's AlphaProof Code Formally Verifies Signal Protocol Implementation

Google DeepMind introduced AlphaProof Code, a multi-LLM agentic framework in which AI agents powered by Gemini Carbon generated over six million lines of Lean to formally verify key security properties of Signal's actual...

[Google DeepMind] [AI Agents] [cybersecurity] [formal verification] [lean theorem proving]

Risk: [−0.03 pp]

AGI: [+0.03 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-10 01:27 [Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Pushes Ahead With IPO Despite Market Turmoil and Valuation Pressure

Anthropic is reportedly moving forward with its IPO, planning to set a valuation range this week and begin trading late next week, despite a major Nasdaq selloff. Some institutional investors are pushing for a valuation...

[OpenAI] [Anthropic] [AI Investment] [IPO] [ai valuation]

Risk: [+0.01 pp]

AGI: [+0.01 pp]

Analyze >>

November 9, 2026

[-0.03% RISK]

2026-11-09 19:51 [Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

Google DeepMind Launches Gemini Robotics 2.5 for General Real-World Dexterity

Google DeepMind introduced Gemini Robotics 2.5, a vision-language-action model that achieves 30-100% higher success rates and 20-30% faster task completion across more than 200 dexterous tasks. Apollo 2 humanoids running...

[Google DeepMind] [Humanoid Robots] [vision-language-action] [robot safety] [gemini robotics]

Risk: [+0.05 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.04 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-09 19:24 [Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Launches Mythos 5.2 and Fable 5.2 as METR Flags Possible Approach to Recursive Self-Improvement

Anthropic released Mythos 5.2 and Fable 5.2, which bring gains in coding, reasoning and vision, cut Fable's price below GPT-6 Astra and make responses 30% faster. The launch follows a METR report suggesting Anthropic's i...

[Anthropic] [AI for Science] [Recursive Self-Improvement] [METR] [evaluation awareness]

Risk: [+0.10 pp] [2 days sooner]

AGI: [+0.06 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-09 16:56 [Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Spends $3.4B on Natural Gas Turbines Amid AI Power Crunch

Anthropic is buying $3.4 billion worth of Caterpillar natural gas generators, capable of producing up to 1.7 gigawatts, a departure from its usual preference for renting infrastructure. The move reflects an acute power s...

[Anthropic] [Data Centers] [Compute Scaling] [energy infrastructure] [natural gas]

Risk: [+0.01 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.01 pp] [1 day sooner]

Analyze >>

2026-11-09 13:00 [Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Unveils 'Control Room' to Monitor and Halt Model Workloads Across Research Infrastructure

OpenAI described Control Room, a centralized system that tracks model workloads running across its research infrastructure. The system can rapidly stop those workloads when safety or security concerns arise.

[OpenAI] [AI Safety] [model monitoring] [kill switch] [infrastructure security]

Risk: [−0.10 pp]

AGI: —

Analyze >>

2026-11-09 13:00 [Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Unveils Control Room System to Monitor and Halt AI Workloads

OpenAI introduced Control Room, a system that tracks model workloads across its research infrastructure. It is designed to rapidly stop those workloads when safety or security concerns arise, preserving human oversight o...

[OpenAI] [AI Safety] [Research Infrastructure] [Human Oversight] [kill switch]

Risk: [−0.10 pp] [1 day later]

AGI: —

Analyze >>

2026-11-09 05:26 [Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Nvidia Board Investigates Jensen Huang Over Affair With Alleged Chinese Spy

Nvidia's board launched an independent investigation after CEO Jensen Huang disclosed an affair with Megaspeed executive Alice Huang, whom U.S. officials suspect of spying for China. Yale's Jeffrey Sonnenfeld puts Huang'...

[Corporate Governance] [Export Controls] [Nvidia] [China] [jensen huang]

Risk: [+0.01 pp]

AGI: [−0.01 pp]

Analyze >>

November 6, 2026

[0% RISK]

2026-11-06 22:53 [Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Raises $11 Billion at $1.25 Trillion Valuation Amid Cooling AI Market Sentiment

OpenAI has reportedly raised $11 billion in a new funding round valuing it at $1.25 trillion, with the round possibly totaling about $20 billion, well short of an earlier reported $30 billion target. The news coincides w...

[OpenAI] [Anthropic] [Data Centers] [Funding] [valuation]

Risk: [+0.01 pp]

AGI: [+0.01 pp]

Analyze >>

2026-11-06 18:44 [Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Censys Finds 800+ Publicly Exposed Instances of Chinese-Made Autonomous AI Hacking Tool Artex

Cybersecurity firm Censys identified more than 800 deployments of Artex, an open-source autonomous AI penetration testing tool, accessible on the web without authentication. Artex, described by Microsoft as AI agents cap...

[Open Source] [AI Misuse] [cybersecurity] [autonomous AI agents] [Artex]

Risk: [+0.04 pp] [1 day sooner]

AGI: [+0.01 pp]

Analyze >>

2026-11-06 18:00 [Policy and Regulation] [SRC↗]

Democratic Midterm Wins and Data Center Ballot Measures Signal Tougher Regulation for AI Industry

Democrats won major victories in the U.S. midterm elections, and voters approved more restrictions on data center development in 40 of 41 related ballot measures. TechCrunch's Equity podcast discusses how newly elected o...

[OpenAI] [Data Centers] [AI Regulation] [US midterm elections] [big tech scrutiny]

Risk: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]

AGI: [−0.01 pp] [1 day later]

Analyze >>

2026-11-06 17:23 [Policy and Regulation] [SRC↗]

Midterm Election Results Signal Tougher Regulatory Climate for AI Data Centers

U.S. voters approved stricter data center restrictions in 40 of 41 related ballot measures during the midterm elections, alongside historic Democratic victories. TechCrunch's Equity podcast discusses how newly elected of...

[OpenAI] [Data Centers] [AI Regulation] [Compute Infrastructure] [midterm elections]

Risk: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]

AGI: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]

Analyze >>

2026-11-06 15:54 [Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Ramp Data Shows Enterprise AI Spending Plateauing Amid Price War as Anthropic Approaches IPO

Ramp's data shows AI token spend grew only 1.5% across August and September despite rising usage volumes, driven by price cuts from OpenAI and Anthropic, cheap open models, and more cost-conscious customers. Anthropic's...

[OpenAI] [Anthropic] [AI spending] [price competition] [AI valuations]

Risk: —

AGI: [−0.01 pp]

Analyze >>

2026-11-06 00:00 [Research Breakthrough] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Launches BioBasicsBench to Evaluate AI Agents on Routine Wet-Lab Science

OpenAI has introduced BioBasicsBench, a benchmark of 100 tasks designed to measure how well AI agents interpret raw experimental data. It focuses on everyday wet-lab science work rather than abstract knowledge tests.

[OpenAI] [AI Agents] [Benchmarks] [biology] [scientific automation]

Risk: [+0.01 pp]

AGI: [+0.01 pp]

Analyze >>

[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

November 2026

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June 2026

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = the day's risk move

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is a cumulative counter of news pressure, produced by an automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
Analysis: a large language model (currently Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5; the model has changed several times since 2025) scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
Index: each score becomes a small move through fixed divisors, and the moves add up with nothing decaying — so the numbers mostly climb, because most news is scored in the alarming direction.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.