SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

33.09%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

May 28, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

82.31%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 15, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.23% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

AfterQuery Hits $3.2B Valuation Training AI Agents on Expert Professional Workflows

AI training-data startup AfterQuery has reportedly raised a round valuing it at $3.2 billion, roughly a 10x jump from its $300 million Series A five months earlier, making it Y Combinator's fastest-ever unicorn according...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Says Upcoming 'Astra' Model Crosses Its Critical Cybersecurity Threshold

OpenAI disclosed that its forthcoming Astra model is the first LLM to meet the company's "critical cybersecurity threshold," capable of autonomously discovering and exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities and scoring perfect...

Risk: [+0.17% ↑] [-3 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Ships Fable 5.1 and Restricted Mythos 5.1 with Cheaper Tokens, Fewer False Refusals, and Zero Data Retention

Anthropic released Fable 5.1 and the partner-restricted Mythos 5.1, adding performance gains, lower token costs, and fewer false-positive safety refusals, plus a Zero Data Retention option (Enterprise Frontier Safeguards...

Risk: [+0.04% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.08% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Pentagon Rolls Out ChatGPT Mil and Grok for Government to 3 Million Personnel

The Department of Defense has added custom versions of OpenAI's ChatGPT and xAI's Grok to its GenAI.mil portal, giving up to 3 million military and civilian personnel access to frontier generative AI tailored to "warfigh...

Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.02% RISK]
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.