Current AI Risk Assessment

24.25%

Chance of AI Control Loss

December 18, 2035

Estimated Date of Control Loss

AGI Development Metrics?

74.92%

AGI Progress

December 30, 2029

Estimated Date of AGI

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

February 11, 2026
-0.03% Risk

Mass Exodus of Senior Engineers and Co-Founders from xAI Raises Stability Concerns

At least nine engineers, including two of xAI's co-founders, have publicly announced their departure from the company within the past week, bringing the total co-founder exits to more than half of the founding team. The departures coincide with regulatory scrutiny over Grok's generation of nonconsensual explicit deepfakes and personal controversy surrounding Elon Musk. Several departing engineers cite desires for greater autonomy and plan to start new ventures, raising questions about xAI's institutional stability and ability to compete with rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic.

February 10, 2026
-0.05% Risk

Flapping Airplanes Secures $180M to Develop Brain-Inspired Data-Efficient AI Models

AI lab Flapping Airplanes has raised $180 million in seed funding from Google Ventures, Sequoia, and Index to develop AI models that learn like humans rather than through massive data consumption. The team, led by brothers Ben and Asher Spector and co-founder Aidan Smith, believes radically more data-efficient training methods could unlock entirely new AI capabilities. Despite having no product yet, the lab attracted significant investment based on its novel approach to AI learning efficiency.

xAI Loses Nearly Half Its Founding Team Amid Product Struggles and IPO Preparation

Five of xAI's 12 founding team members have departed the company, with four leaving in the past year alone, including co-founder Yuhuai Wu who announced his exit in February 2025. While the departures appear amicable and coincide with an upcoming IPO and SpaceX acquisition windfall, they raise concerns about organizational stability. The exodus occurs as xAI's Grok chatbot faces technical issues, controversies over deepfake content generation, and increasing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic.

Former GitHub CEO Launches Entire with Record $60M Seed to Manage AI-Generated Code

Former GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke has raised a record $60 million seed round at a $300 million valuation for Entire, a startup developing tools to help developers manage code written by AI agents. The company's first product, Checkpoints, is an open-source tool that pairs AI-generated code with the context that created it, including prompts and transcripts, to address the growing challenge of massive volumes of AI-produced code overwhelming software projects.

Runway Secures $315M Series E at $5.3B Valuation to Develop Advanced World Models for AGI

AI video startup Runway raised $315 million at a $5.3 billion valuation to develop next-generation world models, AI systems that create internal representations of environments to predict future events. The company, which recently released its Gen 4.5 video generation model that outperformed Google and OpenAI offerings, plans to expand world model capabilities beyond media into medicine, climate, energy, and robotics. This strategic shift positions Runway among competitors like Fei-Fei Li's World Labs and Google DeepMind in the race to build world models viewed as essential for surpassing large language model limitations.

February 9, 2026
+0.04% Risk

Anthropic Pursues $20 Billion Funding Round at $350 Billion Valuation Amid Intense AI Competition

Anthropic is closing a $20 billion funding round at a $350 billion valuation, doubling its initial target due to strong investor demand, just five months after raising $13 billion. The round is driven by intense competition among frontier AI labs and escalating compute costs, with major participation from Nvidia, Microsoft, and leading venture capital firms. The company's recent successes include widely-praised coding agents and new models for legal and business research that have disrupted traditional data firms.

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AI Risk Assessment Methodology

Our risk assessment methodology leverages a sophisticated analysis framework to evaluate AI development and its potential implications:

Data Collection

We continuously monitor and aggregate AI news from leading research institutions, tech companies, and policy organizations worldwide. Our system analyzes hundreds of developments daily across multiple languages and sources.

Impact Analysis

Each news item undergoes rigorous assessment through:

  • Technical Evaluation: Analysis of computational advancements, algorithmic breakthroughs, and capability improvements
  • Safety Research: Progress in alignment, interpretability, and containment mechanisms
  • Governance Factors: Regulatory developments, industry standards, and institutional safeguards

Indicator Calculation

Our indicators are updated using a Bayesian probabilistic model that:

  • Assigns weighted impact scores to each analyzed development
  • Calculates cumulative effects on control loss probability and AGI timelines
  • Accounts for interdependencies between different technological trajectories
  • Maintains historical trends to identify acceleration or deceleration patterns

This methodology enables data-driven forecasting while acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in predicting transformative technological change.