SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

35.23%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

April 26, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

83.38%

Estimated Date of AGI

June 27, 2029
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Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[-0.02% RISK]

US Proposes US-China AI Safety Alert Channel Without Technical Experts; China Has Not Responded Publicly

Ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a proposed US-China mechanism for sending alerts when either country's AI systems pose threats or behave unpredictably, but China has not publicly ac...

Risk: [-0.02% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.08% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Extends GPT-6 Line with Cheaper, More Accurate Sol and Luna Models

OpenAI released updated GPT-6 Sol and Luna models, following the flagship GPT-6 Astra launch earlier in the month, positioning them as more efficient and accessible tiers for coding and high-volume clerical tasks. The co...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Anthropic's Opus 5.5 Beats Larger Models at Lower Cost Amid 'Pacing the Frontier' Pledge

Anthropic released Opus 5.5, a model it calls its strongest to date, which outperforms the larger Fable model on many coding and knowledge-work benchmarks while costing less ($20/mTok output vs. $25) and running faster....

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

AstroForge Hands Spacecraft Control to an In-House Transformer Model — and May Fly Without a Receiving Radio

Asteroid-mining startup AstroForge has built "Solo," an in-house transformer-based autonomous control stack that layers a spacecraft-wide intelligence model trained on ~2,500 sensors over traditional control algorithms a...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.08% RISK]

OpenAI Creates Math Advisory Board as Internal Model Claims 100+ Solved Open Problems

OpenAI announced an independent Advisory Group on Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence hosted at the Institute for Advanced Study, following the publication of a claimed solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize...

Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.08% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.