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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

28.06%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

August 3, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

80.45%

Estimated Date of AGI

August 10, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

July 18, 2026
[+0.06% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Moonshot AI's Open-Source Kimi K3 Nears Frontier Parity, Reigniting US-China AI Race Anxiety

Chinese firm Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, an open-weight model it says achieves frontier-level performance while still trailing Claude Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 Sol, with independent evaluations from Arena.ai and Vals AI corr...

[AI Policy] [US-China AI competition] [open-weight models] [moonshot AI] [kimi k3]
Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
July 16, 2026
[+0.06% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

China's Moonshot AI to Release Massive Kimi K3 Open-Weight Model Challenging Frontier Capabilities

Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI is set to release Kimi K3, a massive open-weight model with 2 to 3 trillion parameters designed to rival closed-source frontier models like Anthropic's Opus 4.8. This launch comes alongside...

[Compute Scaling] [Frontier Models] [open-weight models] [moonshot AI] [geopolitical AI competition]
Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
July 15, 2026
[-0.07% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Thinking Machines Launches Inkling, a 975-Billion Parameter Open-Weight Multimodal Model

Thinking Machines Lab, founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, has released its first open-weight AI model, Inkling, designed for enterprise customization. The 975-billion parameter mixture-of-experts model natively su...

[Enterprise AI] [Multimodal AI] [Mixture-of-Experts] [open-weight models] [Thinking Machines]
Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Policy and Regulation] [SRC↗]

Vint Cerf Backs DNS-Based Identification Protocol to Track Autonomous AI Agents

Internet pioneer Vint Cerf has joined Innovation Labs as an adviser to help develop DNSid, an open registry for identifying autonomous AI agents. The protocol aims to provide a cryptographic and DNS-based framework to ho...

[AI Agents] [identity standards] [Vint Cerf] [AI accountability] [internet protocols]
Risk: [-0.08% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.