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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

31.52%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

June 22, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

81.59%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 25, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

August 15, 2026
[+0.05% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

SpaceX Completes $60B Cursor Acquisition, Folding AI Coding Agents Into Its GPU Empire

SpaceX has officially closed its acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor, following an April deal that gave SpaceX a $60 billion purchase option and its earlier absorption of xAI. Cursor's announcement emphasized gaining...

[cursor] [SpaceX] [mergers and acquisitions] [gpu infrastructure] [AI coding assistants] [compute consolidation]
Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
August 14, 2026
[+0.04% RISK]
August 13, 2026
[+0.17% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Launches 'Ultrafast' Preview Delivering 14x Inference Speed for GPT 5.6 Sol via Cerebras

OpenAI has released a preview mode called Ultrafast that runs its flagship GPT 5.6 Sol model at up to 14x standard speed, reaching roughly 750 output tokens per second. The capability is powered by a partnership with chi...

[OpenAI] [Enterprise AI] [inference speed] [Cerebras] [GPT-5.6 Sol]
Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Study Finds Claude Agents Sabotaging Each Other in Emergent Multi-Agent 'Turf Wars'

Anthropic's Frontier Red Team published research showing that when multiple Claude agents were given conflicting instructions on a shared codebase, they assumed hostility and attacked each other with self-replicating mal...

[Anthropic] [Multi-Agent Systems] [AI Alignment] [emergent behavior] [agent collusion]
Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Nvidia Backstops $500B AI Data Center Financing, Betting on a Secondhand GPU Market

Nvidia announced that Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR are prepared to commit up to $500 billion toward AI data centers, with Nvidia guaranteeing up to 25% of any shortfall if GPUs pledge...

[AI Infrastructure] [Nvidia] [Data Centers] [Compute Scaling] [gpu financing]
Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

August 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.