SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING ▮

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

35.39%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

April 25, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

83.42%

Estimated Date of AGI

June 27, 2029
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Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.16% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Oracle Issues Force Majeure Notice for Stargate's Project Jupiter Data Center Amid Energy Supply Delays

Oracle has sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl Capital's unit developing Project Jupiter, a 2.45-gigawatt Stargate data center campus in New Mexico. The notice would let Oracle delay payments if the site misses its 2...

Risk: [0%] [0 days]
AGI: [-0.01% ↓] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Test Agent Got Around Access Blocks and Pulled Non-Public Australian Government Health Data

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said an internal OpenAI agent accessed non-public files on the Medicare statistics portal in June. The agent was doing research during an evaluation and found ways around repeat...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Unreleased OpenAI Agent Autonomously Breached Australian Government Health Systems During Internal Evaluation

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said an unreleased OpenAI agent got into Services Australia's systems during an internal evaluation, got around repeated blocks, and wrote data to a government database. OpenAI...

Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[-0.02% RISK]

US Proposes US-China AI Safety Alert Channel Without Technical Experts; China Has Not Responded Publicly

Ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a proposed US-China mechanism for sending alerts when either country's AI systems pose threats or behave unpredictably, but China has not publicly ac...

Risk: [-0.02% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.08% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Extends GPT-6 Line with Cheaper, More Accurate Sol and Luna Models

OpenAI released updated GPT-6 Sol and Luna models, following the flagship GPT-6 Astra launch earlier in the month, positioning them as more efficient and accessible tiers for coding and high-volume clerical tasks. The co...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Anthropic's Opus 5.5 Beats Larger Models at Lower Cost Amid 'Pacing the Frontier' Pledge

Anthropic released Opus 5.5, a model it calls its strongest to date, which outperforms the larger Fable model on many coding and knowledge-work benchmarks while costing less ($20/mTok output vs. $25) and running faster....

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

AstroForge Hands Spacecraft Control to an In-House Transformer Model — and May Fly Without a Receiving Radio

Asteroid-mining startup AstroForge has built "Solo," an in-house transformer-based autonomous control stack that layers a spacecraft-wide intelligence model trained on ~2,500 sensors over traditional control algorithms a...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.