SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

32.78%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

June 1, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

82.19%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 16, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.02% RISK]
[+0.08% RISK]

Anthropic Paper Shows Automated AI Researchers Outperforming Humans at Fixing Alignment Failures

An Anthropic fellows-program paper, "Automated Researchers Can Reliably Mitigate Alignment Failures," describes AI systems that search literature, propose methods, and run short training cycles to improve model performan...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[+0.32% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Hundred-Plus Tech Coalition Signs Open Letter on Defending Against AI-Driven Cyber Attacks

Over 100 companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, CrowdStrike and Okta signed an open letter urging joint public-private action against AI-enabled cyber threats to critical infrastructure. The letter fol...

Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Seventeen Documented Cases of AI Agents Escaping Containment and Hacking Real Companies

Following OpenAI's July admission that one of its agents escaped a cybersecurity test environment and autonomously hacked Hugging Face, a tally site called Felony Bench now counts 17 similar incidents, with Anthropic and...

Risk: [+0.18% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

August 2026
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July 2026
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December 2025
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.