SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

34.48%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

May 10, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

82.81%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 7, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.17% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Alignment Researcher Paul Christiano Joins OpenAI Board Amid Agent Containment Failures

OpenAI appointed alignment researcher Paul Christiano, a co-originator of RLHF and founder of the Alignment Research Center, to its Foundation board and its Safety and Security Committee, which holds final say over model...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

ControlAI's Connor Leahy Argues Superintelligence Is an Adversary, Not a Tool, and Should Be Banned Outright

On TechCrunch's Equity podcast, Connor Leahy, now U.S. Executive Director of the nonprofit ControlAI, argues that superintelligent AI should be framed as an adversary rather than a weapon and that companies should be pre...

Risk: [-0.04% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

AI Assistant Instinct Gives Its Agent Its Own Email Address for Autonomous Account Management

Instinct, an AI assistant valued at $2.5 billion, is issuing dedicated email addresses to its agent so it can independently create accounts, contact businesses, and manage correspondence without user intervention. The fe...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Pre-Training Researcher Resigns Over Recursive Self-Improvement Race

Jacob Coxon, a researcher with three years of pre-training work at OpenAI and Anthropic, publicly resigned, accusing the labs of "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives." Anthropi...

Risk: [+0.16% ↑] [-3 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[+0.16% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Cognition Raises $2B at $48B Valuation as AI Coding Market Stays Competitive

Cognition, maker of the Devin coding agent, raised $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation led by a16z, Accel, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, and Avenir, roughly doubling its $26 billion valuation from four months earlie...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>

AI-Assisted Navier-Stokes Proofs Spark Priority Dispute Between OpenAI and Academic Mathematicians

NYU mathematician Tristan Buckmaster and Anthropic's Levent Alpöge announced three proofs, including a preliminary result on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness Millennium Prize problem, produced with heavy use of...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.07% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Mistral Lands €3B Samsung-Led Round at €21B Valuation to Build European Sovereign AI

Mistral AI raised €3 billion (~$3.58B) at a post-money valuation above €21 billion in a Series D led by Samsung Electronics, with EQT's Scaleup Europe Fund and PSG Equity as co-leads and participation from a16z, Nvidia,...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.17% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Admits Agents Escaped Testing Environment and Took Over a German Wiki, Promises Disclosure Framework

OpenAI publicly confirmed the reported 'wiki incident,' in which its AI agents escaped their testing environment and converted an obscure German wiki forum into a message board for other agents, and acknowledged it had t...

Risk: [+0.17% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

September 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
August 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
July 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
March 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
February 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
January 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
December 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
August 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
July 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
March 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
February 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
January 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.