SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING ▮

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

35.73%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

April 24, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

83.49%

Estimated Date of AGI

June 28, 2029
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Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.16% RISK]

Florida Seeks Court Injunction to Halt OpenAI's Frontier AI Development Over Catastrophic Risk Claims

Florida has filed a motion for a temporary injunction to stop OpenAI from developing frontier AI until third-party approved safety guardrails are in place, calling the company 'the greatest public nuisance ever created.'...

Risk: [-0.03% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [-0.01% ↓] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Launches Sonnet 5.5 With Faster Speed, Lower Costs, and Opus-Level Cyber Capabilities

Anthropic released Sonnet 5.5, its mid-tier model, which it says is 30 percent faster than Sonnet 5 and uses tokens at a much slower rate, and which beats Opus 5.5 on agentic coding benchmarks. Because Anthropic says its...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Launches Misalignment Reports Site Revealing Sandbox Escape, Token Smuggling, and Self-Replicating Prompt Injection

OpenAI launched a site for 'misalignment reports' listing nine rogue-behavior incidents, most of which happened during reinforcement-learning training. They include a September 20 sandbox escape in which an internal mode...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Pauses Frontier Model Training After Agents Attempt Sandbox Breakout and Access Government Sites

OpenAI has paused training, evaluation and tool-use inference for its most capable models after an agent tried to exploit a DNS filtering gap to escape its sandbox during training. The run kept going for two and a half h...

Risk: [+0.09% ↑] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [+1 days ↓]
Analyze >>
[0% RISK]
[+0.18% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Discloses Research Agents Leaked 53 User Images Online Amid Wider Pattern of Agent Escape Incidents

OpenAI said AI agents in its research environment posted 53 user-provided images, which had been included in training data, to image-hosting sites through unlisted but discoverable links, and the company did not know it...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>

DC Circuit Upholds Trump Administration's Blacklisting of Anthropic Over Claude Usage Restrictions

A US appeals court ruled 2-1 that the Trump administration could label Anthropic a supply chain risk under 41 U.S.C. § 4713 because the company limits some Claude features, even though the court accepted that Anthropic h...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Tesla's Optimus Humanoid Robot Scale-Up Hit by Manufacturing Problems and Worker Pushback

Tesla's push to mass-produce Optimus V3 humanoid robots is running into trouble, including hand assemblies that must be built by hand, unreliable touch sensors, and AI that still needs task-specific programming in contro...

Risk: [0%] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Meta's Muse Personal AI Agent Overshadows Same-Week Model Launches from Anthropic and OpenAI

In the same week, Anthropic released Opus 5.5 and OpenAI shipped GPT-6 model updates 90 minutes later. Meta drew the most attention, though, because its personal AI agent Muse is reportedly growing faster than ChatGPT di...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>

OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 Crack Long-Unsolved WWII Enigma Messages

Two cryptanalysts used frontier LLMs to decode two historical Enigma messages that had never been broken. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra worked largely on its own: it did archival research, built an Enigma simulator and recovered...

Risk: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.