SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

34.68%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

May 8, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

82.94%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 5, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[-0.09% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Microsoft Publishes AI Code of Conduct Barring Cyberattacks, Deception, and Oversight Evasion

Microsoft released an AI code of conduct that sets absolute constraints on its MAI models, forbidding cyberattacks, nuclear weapons assistance, deepfake production, and any mechanism used to evade human oversight or shut...

Risk: [-0.09% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.04% RISK]
[-0.09% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Amodei Proposes "Pacing the Frontier" With Embedded Third-Party Safety Evaluators

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a blog post arguing that AI companies must slow the pace of capability improvements, citing a recent OpenAI-HuggingFace hack and AI's rapidly growing ability to build the next generat...

Risk: [-0.09% ↓] [+1 days ↓]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ Get the daily index digest on Telegram → ] One post a day at 17:00 UTC: how the Skynet Chance and AGI Progress numbers moved, and the news that moved them. Nothing else. [ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

September 2026
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August 2026
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July 2026
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June 2026
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May 2026
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April 2026
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March 2026
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February 2026
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January 2026
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December 2025
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November 2025
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.