SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING ▮

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

AI Risk & AGI Progress Index

A cumulative counter of AI news pressure · as of Nov 10, 2026 15:39 UTC

Chance of AI control loss

37.4%

today +0.01 pp · since Nov 3 no change

Estimated control loss

March 25, 2035

since Nov 3 2 days sooner

AGI progress

84.8%

today +0.01 pp · since Nov 3 +0.09 pp

Estimated AGI arrival

June 12, 2029

since Nov 3 1 day sooner

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Risk Trend Over Time

The chance of AI control loss over time; the daily values are in the news archive.

Latest AGI & AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.01% RISK]
[-0.08% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Launches Mythos 5.2 and Fable 5.2 as METR Flags Possible Approach to Recursive Self-Improvement

Anthropic released Mythos 5.2 and Fable 5.2, which bring gains in coding, reasoning and vision, cut Fable's price below GPT-6 Astra and make responses 30% faster. The launch follows a METR report suggesting Anthropic's i...

Risk: [+0.10 pp] [2 days sooner]
AGI: [+0.06 pp] [1 day sooner]
Analyze >>
[0% RISK]

Democratic Midterm Wins and Data Center Ballot Measures Signal Tougher Regulation for AI Industry

Democrats won major victories in the U.S. midterm elections, and voters approved more restrictions on data center development in 40 of 41 related ballot measures. TechCrunch's Equity podcast discusses how newly elected o...

Risk: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]
AGI: [−0.01 pp] [1 day later]
Analyze >>

Midterm Election Results Signal Tougher Regulatory Climate for AI Data Centers

U.S. voters approved stricter data center restrictions in 40 of 41 related ballot measures during the midterm elections, alongside historic Democratic victories. TechCrunch's Equity podcast discusses how newly elected of...

Risk: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]
AGI: [−0.03 pp] [1 day later]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

November 2026
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October 2026
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September 2026
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June 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = the day's risk move

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is a cumulative counter of news pressure, produced by an automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: a large language model (currently Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5; the model has changed several times since 2025) scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: each score becomes a small move through fixed divisors, and the moves add up with nothing decaying — so the numbers mostly climb, because most news is scored in the alarming direction.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.