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Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

30.45%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

July 6, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

81.22%

Estimated Date of AGI

July 30, 2029

Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

August 6, 2026
[+0.13% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Mirendil Commits Over $100M to Google Cloud Compute for Recursive Self-Improvement Research

AI lab Mirendil, founded by ex-Anthropic researchers, has signed a multi-year deal worth over $100 million with Google Cloud for TPU, Nvidia GPU, and managed training cluster capacity to pursue self-improving AI. The sta...

[AI Startups] [Compute Infrastructure] [Recursive Self-Improvement] [google cloud] [tpus] [automated ai research]
Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Google Maps Turns "Ask Maps" Into a Task-Completing Agent With Gmail and Calendar Access

Google is adding agentic capabilities to Google Maps' "Ask Maps" feature, letting users order food, book hotels, and find event tickets through partners like Square, Toast, and Uber Eats. The update also introduces opt-i...

[AI Agents] [Personalization] [Consumer AI] [google maps] [personal assistants]
Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
August 5, 2026
[+0.13% RISK]
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Meta Enters the Coding Agent Race with Muse Code, a Parallel Sub-Agent Terminal Tool

Meta released Muse Code in beta, a terminal-based coding agent powered by its Muse Spark model that can plan, write, and validate changes across large repositories. The agent spawns parallel sub-agents in isolated worktr...

[Meta] [Multi-Agent Systems] [coding agents] [software automation] [muse spark]
Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Jeff Dean Exits Google with Top Researchers to Found Discovery Loop, an AI-for-Science Startup Targeting Recursive Self-Improvement

Jeff Dean is leaving Google after 27 years to become CEO of Discovery Loop, a public benefit corporation co-founded with Sanjay Ghemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals. The startup aims to automate complete experimental loo...

[Google DeepMind] [AI for Science] [Recursive Self-Improvement] [jeff dean] [ai startup funding]
Risk: [+0.08% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
August 4, 2026
[+0.07% RISK]
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Chinese Open-Weight Model GLM-5.2 Nears Frontier Cyber and Bio Capabilities With No Refusals

A SaferAI evaluation found Z.ai's open-weight GLM-5.2 trails OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 by only a few months on cyber and biology capabilities, yet refused none of the offensive cyber or dual-use bi...

[Biosecurity] [China AI Policy] [open-weight models] [AI safety evaluation] [cyber capabilities] [jailbreaks]
Risk: [+0.11% ↑] [-2 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

Anthropic Reportedly Locks in $10B, Six-Year Compute Deal with Nvidia-Backed Cloud Startup Volta

Anthropic has reportedly signed a $10 billion, six-year cloud compute agreement with Volta, an AI cloud startup founded earlier this year and part of Nvidia's Cloud Partner program. Volta will work with crypto-mining fir...

[Anthropic] [Data Centers] [Compute Scaling] [cloud infrastructure] [nvidia vera rubin]
Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Policy and Regulation] [SRC↗]

Texas Imposes Mandatory Audits on New Data Centers as Grid Requests Hit 474 GW

Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced that all new data center projects must be audited by the state's Public Utility Commission and grid operator ERCOT, which is now tracking 474 gigawatts of interconnection requests — r...

[Data Centers] [AI Regulation] [Compute Infrastructure] [energy constraints] [ERCOT]
Risk: [-0.02% ↓] [0 days]
AGI: [-0.01% ↓] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

August 2026
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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: the TechCrunch AI feed is polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic Claude scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.