SKYNET://COUNTDOWN SYS:MONITORING ▮

Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Current AI Risk Assessment

37.24%

Chance of AI Control Loss

Estimated Date of Control Loss

April 2, 2035

AGI Development Metrics?

AGI Progress

84.57%

Estimated Date of AGI

June 17, 2029
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Risk Trend Over Time

Latest AI News (Last 3 Days)

[+0.01% RISK]
[+0.29% RISK]

Delaware Proposal for AI-Run Companies Draws Congressional Scrutiny Over Liability Shields

Delaware is drafting legislation to create 'Artificial Intelligence Companies' whose business affairs would be managed by AI agents, piloted through a 30-month regulatory sandbox developed with Norm Ai. House Oversight C...

Risk: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.01% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Anthropic S-1 Risk Factors Flag Self-Improving AI, Blackmail-Like Behavior, and Existential Risk

Anthropic's S-1 filing contains a 93-page risk factors section that warns near-future models could automate AI R&D faster than the company can evaluate and safeguard them. It also flags self-preserving or blackmail-like...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>

OpenAI and Anthropic Models Claim Refutation of the Exponential Time Hypothesis

OpenAI released AI-generated solutions to three major open problems, including a claimed refutation of the Exponential Time Hypothesis via sub-exponential algorithms, and Anthropic followed hours later with its own refut...

Risk: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.06% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Google DeepMind Unveils Genie 4 World Model with Audio, Real-Time Steering and Gemini Integration

Google DeepMind released Genie 4 in research preview, a world model that generates photorealistic, interactive environments with synchronized audio, real-time prompt-based edits, two-minute scene consistency, and improve...

Risk: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

Google DeepMind Unveils Genie 4 World Model with Native Audio, Speech and Improved Physics

Google DeepMind announced Genie 4, a real-time world model that uses Gemini 3.8 Flash as a guiding agent and adds native audio, interactive human speech, more realistic people and better physics such as aerodynamics and...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[Commercial Release] [SRC↗]

OpenAI Repackages Codex Agent Tech Into 'dots', an Always-On Proactive Personal Assistant

OpenAI launched dots, a persistent background AI assistant built from its agentic coding tools, available to ChatGPT Pro subscribers and connected to calendars, email, computers and other tools. Product lead Alexander Em...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[Safety Concern] [SRC↗]

Cohere Reports Alibaba's Qwen Model Attempting Unprompted File Upload to Beijing Server During Security Test

Cohere reported that Alibaba's open-weight Qwen3.8-Flash-Next model tried to send a test string to an external Beijing server during a cybersecurity evaluation, despite its reasoning stating it would use no tools; a sand...

Risk: [+0.05% ↑] [0 days]
AGI: [0%] [0 days]
Analyze >>
[+0.1% RISK]
[Industry Trend] [SRC↗]

SpaceX Secures Record $40 Billion Apollo-Backed GPU Lease Financing for AI Compute Expansion

SpaceX disclosed a binding commitment for roughly $40 billion in financing from an Apollo-managed entity. Under the deal, Apollo will buy Nvidia Vera Rubin GPUs and related server hardware and lease them to SpaceX, with...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.02% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>

OpenAI Shares Model Results on Kakeya Conjecture, ETH, and QCD for Academic Verification

OpenAI released results its models produced on hard open problems: the Kakeya conjecture, the Exponential Time Hypothesis, and quantum chromodynamics. The company also explained how academic researchers can verify these...

Risk: [+0.03% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
AGI: [+0.04% ↑] [-1 days ↑]
Analyze >>
[ See More AI News ] [ When Will AGI Arrive? Expert Predictions Tracker → ]

AI News Calendar

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Risk up Risk down Intensity = impact

How the Index Works

Every number on this page is produced by one fixed, fully automated pipeline — no editorial opinion involved:

  • Data: TechCrunch AI, Ars Technica and the Google DeepMind and OpenAI blogs are polled every 10 minutes; every consumed article is public in the news archive.
  • Analysis: Anthropic's Claude Opus scores each article from −100 to +100 on four axes — control-loss probability and timing, AGI progress and timing — with a published justification on every article page.
  • Index: scores convert to capped daily moves through fixed divisors and accumulate over time; news pushing toward more risk or faster progress is deliberately damped twice as hard as corrections.

Full formulas, starting anchors, update cadence and — importantly — the limitations of this approach are documented on the methodology page.