December 17, 2025 News
Google Releases Gemini 3 Flash as Default Model, Intensifying Competition with OpenAI
Google has launched Gemini 3 Flash, a fast and cost-effective AI model that outperforms its predecessor Gemini 2.5 Flash and matches frontier models like GPT-5.2 on several benchmarks. The model is now the default in Google's Gemini app and features enhanced multimodal capabilities, reasoning, and visual content generation. This release continues the intense competition between Google and OpenAI, with Google processing over 1 trillion tokens daily through its API.
Skynet Chance (+0.01%): The release of increasingly capable and widely deployed AI models with enhanced reasoning and multimodal capabilities incrementally increases the potential for unintended consequences and misuse. However, this appears to be a commercial iteration without novel safety concerns, representing routine capability advancement.
Skynet Date (+0 days): The rapid release cycle (six months between versions) and widespread deployment as a default model slightly accelerates the timeline for advanced AI systems to be deeply integrated into society. The competitive pressure driving faster releases may reduce safety consideration time.
AGI Progress (+0.02%): The model demonstrates significant improvements in multimodal reasoning, scoring 81.2% on MMMU-Pro and showing strong performance on coding benchmarks (78% on SWE-bench). These advances in cross-domain reasoning and multimodal understanding represent meaningful progress toward general intelligence capabilities.
AGI Date (+0 days): The intense competition between Google and OpenAI, evidenced by rapid model releases and Google's "Code Red" response dynamics, is accelerating the pace of AI development substantially. The six-month release cycle and trillion-token-per-day processing volume indicates faster-than-expected capability scaling.
Amazon in Talks for $10B Investment in OpenAI, Valuing Company Above $500B
Amazon is reportedly in early discussions to invest up to $10 billion in OpenAI, potentially valuing the AI lab at over $500 billion. The deal would involve OpenAI using Amazon's AI chips and cloud infrastructure, marking another circular investment pattern in the AI industry where tech giants invest in AI companies that then commit to using their hardware and cloud services.
Skynet Chance (+0.01%): The deal represents further concentration of AI power and resources among a few major players with circular investment patterns that may prioritize commercial scaling over safety considerations. However, the investment structure itself doesn't directly increase control or alignment risks beyond existing trajectories.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The massive $10B investment and circular deal structure will accelerate OpenAI's access to compute resources and chip infrastructure, potentially speeding up deployment of increasingly capable systems. The financial backing enables faster scaling of AI systems before alignment challenges are fully resolved.
AGI Progress (+0.02%): The $500B+ valuation and substantial capital injection signal strong market confidence in OpenAI's path toward AGI, while providing significant resources for scaling compute and talent acquisition. Access to Amazon's chip infrastructure and AWS cloud services removes key bottlenecks for training larger, more capable models.
AGI Date (-1 days): The deal accelerates AGI timeline by providing OpenAI with substantial compute infrastructure through Amazon's chips and cloud services, removing resource constraints. The $10B investment enables faster model development cycles and more aggressive scaling of capabilities.