March 17, 2026 News
Pentagon Develops Independent AI Systems After Anthropic Partnership Collapse
The Pentagon is actively building its own large language models to replace Anthropic's AI following a contract breakdown over military use restrictions. After Anthropic sought contractual clauses prohibiting mass surveillance and autonomous weapons deployment, the Pentagon rejected these terms and instead partnered with OpenAI and xAI. The Department of Defense has designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, effectively barring other defense contractors from working with the company.
Skynet Chance (+0.06%): The Pentagon's rejection of restrictions on autonomous weapons and mass surveillance, combined with development of unrestricted military AI systems, increases risks of AI being deployed without adequate safety constraints. The explicit refusal to accept human-in-the-loop requirements for weapons systems directly elevates concerns about loss of human control.
Skynet Date (-1 days): Active military development of multiple unrestricted LLMs with stated "very soon" operational deployment accelerates the timeline for powerful AI systems operating in high-stakes military contexts without safety guardrails. The Pentagon's urgency in replacing Anthropic and partnerships with OpenAI and xAI suggest faster integration of advanced AI into military operations.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): The Pentagon developing its own LLMs represents expansion of frontier AI development capabilities beyond commercial labs, though these are likely adaptations rather than fundamental advances. Multiple organizations racing to deploy powerful AI systems indicates broader capability distribution.
AGI Date (+0 days): Increased government investment and urgency in developing capable LLMs for military applications, along with multiple parallel efforts (Pentagon, OpenAI, xAI), suggests acceleration in overall AI development pace. The competitive pressure and defense funding may speed up capability improvements across the ecosystem.
OpenAI Partners with AWS to Deliver AI Services to U.S. Government Agencies
OpenAI has signed a partnership with Amazon Web Services to sell its AI products to U.S. government agencies for both classified and unclassified work. This expands OpenAI's federal presence beyond its recent Pentagon deal and positions it to compete with Anthropic, which has deep AWS integration but faces DOD supply chain risk designation after refusing military surveillance applications.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Expanding AI deployment into classified government and military systems increases the integration of advanced AI into critical infrastructure and weapons systems, creating more pathways for potential misuse or loss of control. The competitive pressure that led Anthropic to be designated a supply chain risk suggests safety concerns may be subordinated to strategic positioning.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The rapid expansion of AI into government and military applications, combined with competitive pressure overriding safety considerations, accelerates the deployment of powerful AI systems into high-stakes environments. This compressed timeline for military AI integration may outpace the development of adequate safety protocols.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): This deal represents commercial expansion and government adoption rather than a fundamental capability breakthrough. However, access to government data and use cases may provide valuable training signals and feedback for model improvement.
AGI Date (+0 days): Government contracts typically provide substantial funding and computational resources that can accelerate research timelines. The competitive dynamics with Anthropic may also intensify the pace of capability development across frontier AI labs.
World Launches AgentKit to Verify Human Authorization Behind AI Shopping Agents
World, co-founded by Sam Altman, has released AgentKit, a beta verification tool that allows websites to confirm a real human is behind AI agent purchasing decisions using World ID derived from iris scans. The tool integrates with the x402 blockchain-based payment protocol developed by Coinbase and Cloudflare, aiming to address fraud and abuse concerns as agentic commerce grows. Major platforms like Amazon, MasterCard, and Google have already begun embracing automated AI purchasing capabilities.
Skynet Chance (-0.03%): The verification system provides a mechanism for maintaining human oversight and accountability over autonomous AI agents conducting transactions, potentially reducing risks of uncontrolled AI behavior in commercial contexts. However, the impact is narrow in scope, limited to e-commerce applications rather than addressing broader AI alignment or control challenges.
Skynet Date (+0 days): By establishing human verification requirements for AI agents, this introduces friction and oversight mechanisms that could slightly slow the deployment of fully autonomous AI systems. The requirement for human authorization acts as a modest governance constraint on agent autonomy.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): The widespread adoption of AI agents for complex tasks like autonomous shopping and web browsing represents incremental progress toward more general-purpose AI systems that can navigate diverse online environments. This infrastructure development signals maturation of agentic AI capabilities beyond narrow applications.
AGI Date (+0 days): The rapid commercialization and infrastructure building around AI agents by major companies (Amazon, MasterCard, Google, Coinbase, Cloudflare) indicates accelerating industry investment and deployment of autonomous AI systems. This commercial momentum and ecosystem development suggests faster timeline progression toward more capable and general AI systems.