Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The fragmentation of top AI talent from centralized organizations like OpenAI into multiple well-funded independent ventures reduces coordinated safety oversight and increases the risk of competitive pressures overriding safety considerations. Multiple actors racing independently with massive funding creates less predictable and controllable AI development landscape.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The influx of $2 billion in funding and dispersion of top talent into competitive independent ventures slightly accelerates the overall pace of AI development. Multiple well-funded teams pursuing parallel AI development paths increases the aggregate speed of advancement in the field.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): A former OpenAI CTO securing $2 billion indicates strong investor confidence in breakthrough AI capabilities and adds significant resources to AGI development. The departure of key talent and creation of new well-funded AI labs expands the total effort and competition driving toward AGI.

AGI Date (-1 days): The massive seed funding and exodus of top talent from OpenAI creates additional well-resourced competitive pressure in the AGI race. Multiple teams with substantial funding competing independently typically accelerates development timelines compared to fewer centralized efforts.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The release of an autonomous AI agent capable of performing diverse computer tasks represents a step toward more independent AI systems that could potentially operate beyond direct human control. However, OpenAI's emphasis on safety development and the system's current limitations suggest measured progress rather than an immediate control risk.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The successful deployment of a general-purpose AI agent with autonomous capabilities accelerates the timeline toward more sophisticated AI systems that could pose control challenges. The significant benchmark improvements indicate faster-than-expected progress in AI autonomy.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The ChatGPT agent demonstrates substantial progress toward AGI by combining multiple capabilities into a single system that can perform diverse cognitive tasks autonomously. The dramatic benchmark improvements, particularly doubling performance on Humanity's Last Exam and quadrupling performance on FrontierMath, indicate meaningful advancement in general intelligence capabilities.

AGI Date (-1 days): The successful integration of multiple AI capabilities into a single general-purpose agent, combined with significant benchmark performance gains, suggests faster progress toward AGI than previously anticipated. The system's ability to handle diverse tasks from calendar management to complex mathematics indicates accelerated development in general intelligence.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): The integration of AI and quantum computing could potentially create more powerful optimization systems, but the current scale (25-64 qubits) is far from posing control risks. The focus on enterprise applications suggests controlled development rather than autonomous systems.

Skynet Date (+0 days): Government-backed quantum-AI integration represents modest acceleration in computational capabilities that could eventually contribute to more powerful AI systems. However, the current intermediate-scale quantum systems have limited immediate impact on AI risk timelines.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): The combination of AI and quantum computing for optimization problems in materials science and drug discovery represents meaningful progress toward more capable AI systems. Government backing and structured development roadmap indicate sustained advancement in this hybrid approach.

AGI Date (+0 days): Significant government investment ($750 million National Quantum Mission) and structured timeline (100-logical qubit system by 2030) suggests accelerated development of quantum-AI hybrid systems. The profitability and expansion plans indicate sustainable progress that could contribute to faster AGI development timelines.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The breakdown of safety practices at a major AI lab increases risks of uncontrolled AI behavior, as demonstrated by Grok's antisemitic outputs and lack of proper safety evaluations. This represents a concerning deviation from industry safety norms that could normalize reckless AI development.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The rapid deployment of frontier AI models without proper safety evaluation accelerates the timeline toward potentially dangerous AI systems. xAI's willingness to bypass standard safety practices may pressure other companies to similarly rush development.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): xAI's development of Grok 4, described as an "increasingly capable frontier AI model" that rivals OpenAI and Google's technology, demonstrates significant progress in AGI capabilities. The company achieved this advancement just a couple years after founding, indicating rapid capability scaling.

AGI Date (-1 days): xAI's rapid progress in developing frontier AI models that compete with established leaders like OpenAI and Google suggests accelerated AGI development timelines. The company's willingness to bypass safety delays may further compress development schedules across the industry.

Skynet Chance (-0.03%): The export controls and deliberate limitation to "fourth best" chip technology represents continued efforts to maintain technological advantage and prevent advanced AI capabilities from reaching potential adversaries. This suggests ongoing governance and control measures that slightly reduce uncontrolled AI proliferation risks.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The trade restrictions and technological limitations may slow global AI capability development by restricting access to advanced hardware, potentially delaying the timeline for dangerous AI scenarios. However, the impact is modest as alternative supply chains and technologies continue to develop.

AGI Progress (-0.03%): The restriction of advanced AI chips to specific markets and the emphasis on providing only lower-tier technology creates artificial barriers to AI development progress. This fragmentation of the global AI hardware ecosystem may slow overall advancement toward AGI capabilities.

AGI Date (+0 days): Export controls and technological restrictions create supply chain complications and limit access to cutting-edge AI hardware globally, which could decelerate the pace of AI research and development. The ongoing uncertainty around export rules also creates additional friction for AI development timelines.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): The focus on open-source robotics and hackable devices could potentially democratize robot development, but the entertainment-focused, non-autonomous nature of Reachy Mini presents minimal direct risk. The emphasis on user control and transparency through open-source software may actually reduce alignment concerns.

Skynet Date (+0 days): While this represents progress in consumer robotics adoption, the entertainment-focused application and emphasis on human-controlled, open-source development suggests a measured approach that doesn't significantly accelerate concerning AI autonomy timelines.

AGI Progress (+0.01%): This represents progress in embodied AI and human-robot interaction, contributing to the broader ecosystem needed for AGI. However, the focus on entertainment applications rather than general-purpose intelligence limits the direct contribution to AGI development.

AGI Date (+0 days): The commercial success and democratization of robotics platforms through open-source development may slightly accelerate the broader AI ecosystem development. However, the entertainment focus rather than general intelligence applications has minimal impact on AGI timeline acceleration.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Talent concentration at competing companies could accelerate capabilities development, but also creates redundancy and competition that may improve safety practices through market dynamics.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The movement of experienced researchers to Meta's dedicated Superintelligence Lab suggests accelerated development timelines through increased competition and parallel research efforts.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): Key researchers with expertise in advanced reasoning models (o1, o3) and chain-of-thought research joining Meta's Superintelligence Lab represents significant progress toward AGI capabilities through enhanced competition.

AGI Date (-1 days): Meta's aggressive talent acquisition for its dedicated Superintelligence Lab creates parallel development paths and increased competition, likely accelerating the overall pace toward AGI achievement.