Monitoring and tracking artificial intelligence development and risk assessment in real-time.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Increased compute capacity and faster inference capabilities marginally increase the potential for more powerful AI systems to be deployed at scale, though the deal focuses on existing architectures rather than fundamentally new capabilities. The infrastructure expansion does provide more resources for capability advancement but doesn't directly address alignment or control challenges.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The massive compute investment and focus on low-latency real-time inference accelerates the deployment and scaling of advanced AI systems, potentially bringing concerns about powerful AI systems forward in time. However, this is infrastructure expansion rather than a fundamental breakthrough, so the acceleration effect is modest.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): Securing 750 megawatts of dedicated compute capacity represents a significant scaling of resources available for training and deploying advanced AI models, which is a key bottleneck in AGI development. The emphasis on faster inference and real-time capabilities also advances the practical deployment of increasingly capable systems.

AGI Date (+0 days): The $10 billion compute deal spanning multiple years substantially accelerates OpenAI's ability to scale AI systems and experiment with larger models and deployments. This major infrastructure investment removes compute constraints that could otherwise slow AGI timeline, though it's an incremental rather than revolutionary acceleration.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): AI systems autonomously solving high-level math problems previously requiring human mathematicians suggests emerging capabilities for abstract reasoning and self-directed problem-solving, which are relevant to alignment and control challenges. However, the work remains in a constrained domain with human verification, limiting immediate existential risk implications.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The demonstration of advanced reasoning capabilities in a general-purpose model suggests faster-than-expected progress in AI's ability to operate autonomously in complex domains. This acceleration in capability development, particularly in abstract reasoning, could compress timelines for developing systems that are difficult to control or align.

AGI Progress (+0.04%): Solving previously unsolved mathematical problems requiring high-level abstract reasoning represents significant progress toward general intelligence, as mathematics has been a key benchmark for human-level cognitive capabilities. The ability to autonomously discover novel solutions and apply complex axioms demonstrates emerging general problem-solving abilities beyond pattern matching.

AGI Date (-1 days): The breakthrough suggests AI models are progressing faster than expected in abstract reasoning and autonomous problem-solving, key components of AGI. The fact that 11 of 15 recent solutions to long-standing problems involved AI indicates an accelerating pace of capability development in domains previously thought to require uniquely human intelligence.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): General-purpose robotic foundation models that can adapt and learn autonomously represent a step toward more capable and less controllable AI systems in physical form. The rapid scaling and massive funding increase the likelihood of deployment before alignment challenges in embodied AI are fully resolved.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The massive $14B valuation and rapid funding acceleration (tripling in 7 months) significantly speeds up development and deployment of adaptive robotic AI systems. This accelerated commercialization timeline pushes potential risks associated with autonomous physical AI systems closer.

AGI Progress (+0.04%): Foundation models for general-purpose robotics that can learn from observation and adapt across tasks represent significant progress toward AGI's physical embodiment and generalization capabilities. The technology addresses a key AGI requirement: learning and transferring knowledge across diverse real-world tasks without extensive retraining.

AGI Date (-1 days): The substantial funding ($1.4B round, $2B+ total) and massive valuation indicate rapid commercialization and development acceleration in embodied AI. This level of investment will significantly speed up the development of general-purpose adaptive AI systems, a crucial component of AGI.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Enabling robots to learn autonomously from video data and self-teach new capabilities increases the potential for unexpected emergent behaviors and reduces human oversight in the learning process. However, the current implementation still requires network feedback loops rather than immediate autonomous action, providing some control mechanisms.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The development of world models that enable robots to learn from video and generalize to physical tasks represents incremental progress toward more autonomous AI systems. However, the current limitations and controlled deployment timeline suggest only modest acceleration of risk timelines.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): World models that can translate video understanding into physical actions represent significant progress toward embodied AGI, addressing the crucial challenge of grounding abstract knowledge in physical reality. The ability to learn new tasks from internet-scale video demonstrates important generalization capabilities beyond narrow task-specific training.

AGI Date (+0 days): Successfully bridging vision, world modeling, and robotic control accelerates progress on embodied AI, which is a critical component of AGI. The ability to leverage internet-scale video for physical learning could significantly speed up robot training compared to traditional methods.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Massive scaling of AI infrastructure and compute capacity increases the potential for more powerful AI systems to be developed, which could heighten control and alignment challenges. The involvement of Daniel Gross from Safe Superintelligence suggests awareness of safety concerns, but the primary focus remains on capability expansion.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The planned exponential expansion of energy capacity (tens to hundreds of gigawatts) specifically for AI infrastructure accelerates the timeline for developing more powerful AI systems. This massive investment in compute resources removes a key bottleneck that could otherwise slow dangerous capability development.

AGI Progress (+0.04%): Significant expansion of computational infrastructure is a critical prerequisite for AGI development, as current scaling laws suggest that increased compute capacity correlates strongly with improved AI capabilities. Meta's commitment to building tens of gigawatts this decade represents a major step toward providing the resources necessary for AGI-level systems.

AGI Date (-1 days): The massive planned infrastructure buildout with hundreds of gigawatts of capacity over time directly accelerates the pace toward AGI by eliminating compute constraints that currently limit model training and scaling. This represents one of the largest commitments to AI infrastructure announced by any company, significantly shortening potential timelines.

Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Democratizing access to autonomous AI agents that can modify files and take action chains without user input increases the attack surface for misuse and unintended consequences. The explicit warnings about prompt injection and file deletion risks acknowledge real control and safety concerns inherent in agentic systems.

Skynet Date (+0 days): Making autonomous AI agents more accessible to non-technical users slightly accelerates the deployment and normalization of agentic AI systems in everyday contexts. However, this is an incremental product release rather than a fundamental capability breakthrough.

AGI Progress (+0.01%): The successful deployment of agentic AI tools that can autonomously execute multi-step tasks across file systems represents incremental progress toward systems with broader autonomous capabilities. However, this is primarily a UX improvement on existing Claude Code functionality rather than a fundamental capability advance.

AGI Date (+0 days): Lowering barriers to agentic AI adoption and expanding the user base slightly accelerates practical experience and iteration with autonomous systems. The impact is minimal as this represents interface refinement rather than core technological advancement.

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): The partnership concentrates advanced AI capabilities in fewer major tech players and increases dependency on centralized cloud AI infrastructure, slightly raising concerns about control concentration. However, Apple's continued emphasis on privacy and on-device processing provides some mitigation against uncontrolled AI deployment.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The collaboration accelerates deployment of advanced AI models to billions of Apple devices globally, modestly speeding the timeline for widespread powerful AI integration. The deal's focus on improving existing assistants rather than novel AGI research limits the acceleration effect.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): This represents significant validation of Google's Gemini as a leading foundational model and demonstrates increasing maturity of AI systems being deployed at massive consumer scale. The partnership indicates AI models are reaching sufficient capability levels to power core functions of the world's most valuable consumer tech company.

AGI Date (+0 days): The $1 billion deal and multi-year commitment accelerate funding and deployment incentives for advanced AI development, modestly speeding the timeline toward more capable systems. The partnership also creates competitive pressure on other tech giants to advance their AI capabilities faster.