December 12, 2025 News
Trump Administration Executive Order Seeks Federal Preemption of State AI Laws, Creating Legal Uncertainty for Startups
President Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to challenge state AI laws and establish a national framework, arguing that the current state-by-state patchwork creates burdens for startups. The order directs the DOJ to create a task force to challenge state laws, instructs the Commerce Department to compile a list of "onerous" state regulations, and asks federal agencies to explore preemptive standards. Legal experts warn the order will create prolonged legal battles and uncertainty rather than immediate clarity, potentially harming startups more than the current patchwork while favoring large tech companies that can absorb legal risks.
Skynet Chance (+0.03%): Weakening regulatory oversight through federal preemption without establishing clear alternatives reduces accountability mechanisms for AI systems. The executive order appears designed to benefit large tech companies over consumer protection, potentially enabling less constrained AI development.
Skynet Date (+0 days): Removing state-level regulatory barriers accelerates AI deployment timelines by reducing compliance requirements, though legal uncertainty may create temporary slowdowns. The administration's pro-AI deregulation stance signals reduced friction for rapid AI advancement.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): Reduced regulatory friction may accelerate AI research and deployment by lowering compliance costs, though the relationship between regulation and technical progress is indirect. The focus on removing barriers suggests faster iteration cycles for AI development.
AGI Date (+0 days): Deregulation and federal preemption of restrictive state laws removes friction from AI development and deployment, particularly benefiting well-funded companies. The administration's explicit pro-AI innovation stance combined with reduced oversight accelerates the timeline toward more advanced AI systems.
Google Releases Gemini 3 Pro-Powered Deep Research Agent with API Access as OpenAI Launches GPT-5.2
Google launched a reimagined Gemini Deep Research agent based on its Gemini 3 Pro model, now offering developers API access through the new Interactions API to embed advanced research capabilities into their applications. The agent, designed to minimize hallucinations during complex multi-step tasks, will be integrated into Google Search, Finance, Gemini App, and NotebookLM. Google released this alongside new benchmarks showing its superiority, though OpenAI simultaneously launched GPT-5.2 (codenamed Garlic), which claims to best Google on various metrics.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Advanced autonomous research agents capable of multi-step reasoning and decision-making over extended periods increase AI capability to operate independently with reduced oversight. The competitive release timing between Google and OpenAI suggests an accelerating capabilities race that could outpace safety considerations.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The simultaneous competitive releases of advanced reasoning agents from both Google and OpenAI demonstrate an intensifying AI capabilities race. Integration into widely-used services like Google Search indicates rapid deployment of autonomous decision-making systems at massive scale.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): Long-horizon autonomous agents with improved factuality and multi-step reasoning represent significant progress toward AGI's core capabilities of independent problem-solving and information synthesis. The API availability democratizes access to advanced agentic capabilities.
AGI Date (-1 days): The competitive simultaneous releases from OpenAI and Google signal dramatically accelerated progress in autonomous reasoning capabilities. Integration into mainstream consumer products indicates these advanced capabilities are moving from research to deployment at unprecedented speed.