February 12, 2025 News
OpenAI Cancels o3 Model in Favor of Unified GPT-5 Release
OpenAI has canceled its planned o3 AI model release, instead incorporating its technology into an upcoming GPT-5 release that aims to unify various capabilities including voice, canvas, search and reasoning. CEO Sam Altman announced that before GPT-5, the company will release GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks, which will be OpenAI's last non-chain-of-thought model as the company fully embraces reasoning models.
Skynet Chance (+0.06%): OpenAI's shift toward unified models with integrated reasoning capabilities represents a significant step toward more autonomous and capable AI systems that can better check their own work, potentially reducing some safety risks while increasing others related to emergent capabilities and decision-making autonomy.
Skynet Date (-4 days): The accelerated release schedule in response to competition and the focus on unified, reasoning-capable models suggests OpenAI is moving more quickly toward advanced AI systems than previously indicated, potentially bringing forward the timeline for systems with increased autonomy and capability.
AGI Progress (+0.11%): The shift toward unified models with integrated reasoning capabilities represents a substantial architectural advancement toward AGI by combining multiple modalities (voice, vision, text) with improved reasoning, moving closer to systems capable of general intelligence across domains.
AGI Date (-5 days): OpenAI's decision to accelerate releases due to competitive pressure and focus on unified reasoning models suggests a significantly compressed timeline for developing AGI-level capabilities, with the company explicitly moving faster toward more capable systems than previously planned.
Anthropic CEO Warns of AI Progress Outpacing Understanding
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei expressed concerns about the need for urgency in AI governance following the AI Action Summit in Paris, which he called a "missed opportunity." Amodei emphasized the importance of understanding AI models as they become more powerful, describing it as a "race" between developing capabilities and comprehending their inner workings, while still maintaining Anthropic's commitment to frontier model development.
Skynet Chance (+0.05%): Amodei's explicit description of a "race" between making models more powerful and understanding them highlights a recognized control risk, with his emphasis on interpretability research suggesting awareness of the problem but not necessarily a solution.
Skynet Date (-2 days): Amodei's comments suggest that powerful AI is developing faster than our understanding, while implicitly acknowledging the competitive pressures preventing companies from slowing down, which could accelerate the timeline to potential control problems.
AGI Progress (+0.08%): The article reveals Anthropic's commitment to developing frontier AI including upcoming reasoning models that merge pre-trained and reasoning capabilities into "one single continuous entity," representing a significant step toward more AGI-like systems.
AGI Date (-3 days): Amodei's mention of upcoming releases with enhanced reasoning capabilities, along with the "incredibly fast" pace of model development at Anthropic and competitors, suggests an acceleration in the timeline toward more advanced AI systems.