February 24, 2025 News
Anthropic Increases Funding Round to $3.5 Billion Despite Financial Losses
Anthropic is finalizing a $3.5 billion fundraising round at a $61.5 billion valuation, up from an initially planned $2 billion. Despite reaching $1.2 billion in annualized revenue, the company continues to operate at a loss and intends to invest the new capital in developing more capable AI technologies.
Skynet Chance (+0.06%): The massive influx of capital ($3.5B) directed specifically toward developing "more capable AI technologies" significantly increases risk by accelerating development without proportionate focus on safety, especially concerning for a company already operating at a loss and potentially pressured to show returns.
Skynet Date (-4 days): The substantial increase in funding (from $2B to $3.5B) and high valuation ($61.5B) dramatically accelerates the timeline for potentially advanced autonomous systems by providing Anthropic with resources to pursue ambitious development timelines despite current financial losses.
AGI Progress (+0.1%): The enormous funding round of $3.5 billion specifically earmarked for "developing more capable AI technologies" represents a major investment in advancing AI capabilities that will likely yield significant progress toward AGI-level systems from one of the leading frontier AI labs.
AGI Date (-5 days): Anthropic's ability to secure 75% more funding than initially sought ($3.5B vs $2B) despite operating at a loss indicates extremely strong investor confidence in accelerated AI progress, which will likely compress development timelines toward AGI significantly.
Anthropic Launches Claude 3.7 Sonnet with Extended Reasoning Capabilities
Anthropic has released Claude 3.7 Sonnet, described as the industry's first "hybrid AI reasoning model" that can provide both real-time responses and extended, deliberative reasoning. The model outperforms competitors on coding and agent benchmarks while reducing inappropriate refusals by 45%, and is accompanied by a new agentic coding tool called Claude Code.
Skynet Chance (+0.11%): Claude 3.7 Sonnet's combination of extended reasoning, reduced safeguards (45% fewer refusals), and agentic capabilities represents a substantial increase in autonomous AI capabilities with fewer guardrails, creating significantly higher potential for unintended consequences or autonomous action.
Skynet Date (-4 days): The integration of extended reasoning, agentic capabilities, and autonomous coding into a single commercially available system dramatically accelerates the timeline for potentially problematic autonomous systems by demonstrating that these capabilities are already deployable rather than theoretical.
AGI Progress (+0.15%): Claude 3.7 Sonnet represents a significant advance toward AGI by combining three critical capabilities: extended reasoning (deliberative thought), reduced need for human guidance (fewer refusals), and agentic behavior (Claude Code), demonstrating integration of multiple cognitive modalities in a single system.
AGI Date (-5 days): The creation of a hybrid model that can both respond instantly and reason extensively, while demonstrating superior performance on real-world tasks (62.3% accuracy on SWE-Bench, 81.2% on TAU-Bench), indicates AGI-relevant capabilities are advancing more rapidly than expected.
Grok 3 Release Sparks 10x Increase in App Downloads and User Engagement
xAI's release of Grok 3, Elon Musk's flagship AI model, has driven significant growth in both mobile and web usage with app downloads increasing more than 10x compared to the previous week. Daily active users soared over 260% in the US and 5x globally, though the simultaneous expansion to new markets and controversies involving censorship and inappropriate outputs may impact long-term retention.
Skynet Chance (+0.01%): The rapid adoption of Grok 3 slightly increases Skynet risk by expanding the deployment of powerful AI systems with documented alignment issues, as evidenced by the censorship controversies and death penalty statements that required emergency patches.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The accelerated commercial deployment of AI systems with known safety flaws marginally speeds up the potential timeline for more dangerous AI scenarios, particularly as competitive pressures may prioritize capabilities over safety.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): Grok 3's apparent capability to attract millions of users suggests modest technical advancements in xAI's model development, representing incremental progress in the commercial application of large language models toward more general capabilities.
AGI Date (-1 days): The intensifying competition between xAI and other AI developers like OpenAI is likely to accelerate investment and development timelines for increasingly capable AI systems, potentially bringing AGI timelines slightly closer.