January 15, 2026 News
Major Talent Reshuffling Across Leading AI Labs: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Thinking Machines
Three top executives abruptly left Mira Murati's Thinking Machines lab to join OpenAI, with two more departures expected soon. Simultaneously, Anthropic recruited Andrea Vallone, a senior safety researcher specializing in mental health issues, from OpenAI, while OpenAI hired Max Stoiber from Shopify to work on a rumored operating system project.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The migration of safety researchers like Vallone to Anthropic, following Jan Leike's earlier departure over safety concerns, suggests potential fragmentation of safety expertise and possible prioritization of capability development over alignment work at OpenAI. This organizational instability at leading labs could weaken safety-focused research coordination.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The aggressive talent acquisition by OpenAI, including hiring for a rumored operating system project, indicates intensified competitive pressure and capability development focus that could accelerate deployment timelines. However, concurrent strengthening of Anthropic's safety team provides some countervailing deceleration effect.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): The talent reshuffling represents reallocation rather than net capability increase, though concentration of engineering talent at OpenAI for new infrastructure projects (operating system) suggests some advancement in applied AI systems. The movement itself doesn't represent fundamental technical breakthroughs toward AGI.
AGI Date (+0 days): OpenAI's aggressive hiring for new product initiatives like an operating system indicates accelerated commercialization and platform development that could speed practical AGI deployment infrastructure. The talent churn creates modest short-term inefficiencies but signals intensifying competitive dynamics that typically accelerate development timelines.
OpenAI Leads $250M Investment in Sam Altman's Brain-Computer Interface Startup Merge Labs
OpenAI has invested in CEO Sam Altman's brain-computer interface startup Merge Labs, leading its $250 million seed round at an $850 million valuation. The company aims to develop non-invasive neural interfaces using molecules and ultrasound to connect humans with AI, competing with Elon Musk's Neuralink. The investment raises concerns about circular dealing, as Merge Labs could function as a "remote control" for OpenAI's software, potentially driving users to OpenAI while increasing the value of Altman's personal holdings.
Skynet Chance (+0.06%): Direct integration of human brains with AI systems creates new pathways for loss of human agency and potential manipulation of neural activity by AI systems. The goal of "merging" humans with superintelligent AI to survive it paradoxically increases dependency and control risks.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The substantial $250M investment and OpenAI's direct involvement accelerates the timeline for human-AI integration, which Altman explicitly frames as necessary for humanity's survival against superintelligent AI. This suggests expectations of advanced AI capabilities arriving sooner than previously anticipated.
AGI Progress (+0.04%): Brain-computer interfaces represent a significant expansion of AI capabilities by providing direct neural data and control mechanisms, potentially accelerating feedback loops between human intelligence and AI systems. OpenAI's commitment to developing AI operating systems that interpret neural signals indicates progress toward more general intelligence applications.
AGI Date (-1 days): The major investment and OpenAI's plans to integrate scientific foundation models with neural interface technology accelerates multiple AGI-relevant research streams simultaneously. The timeline acceleration is evidenced by Altman's 2017 prediction of a merge between 2025-2075, with active development now underway in 2026.