January 29, 2025 News
Zuckerberg Pledges Hundreds of Billions for AI Despite DeepSeek Efficiency Claims
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has committed to spending "hundreds of billions of dollars" on AI development long-term, with over $60 billion allocated for 2025 capital expenditures alone. Despite market panic over DeepSeek's efficient models potentially reducing GPU demand, Zuckerberg maintained that massive AI infrastructure investments remain a strategic advantage for Meta as it aims to make its upcoming Llama 4 model the world's leading AI system.
Skynet Chance (+0.06%): Meta's commitment to spend hundreds of billions on AI with explicit goals to develop agentic capabilities while prioritizing competitive advantage over safety considerations increases risks of developing powerful systems without adequate safeguards against misalignment or unintended consequences.
Skynet Date (-4 days): Meta's pledge to invest hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure and development significantly accelerates the global AI race, with Zuckerberg explicitly stating goals to develop agentic capabilities and lead the field, potentially bringing forward dangerous capability thresholds by years.
AGI Progress (+0.13%): Meta's commitment to unprecedented AI investment ("hundreds of billions") with explicit goals for Llama 4 to surpass closed models and incorporate agentic capabilities represents a major advancement in the resources and intent directed toward AGI-relevant capabilities.
AGI Date (-5 days): Zuckerberg's commitment to spend "hundreds of billions" on AI with specific goals for Llama 4 to lead the field with agentic capabilities, backed by $60+ billion in 2025 alone, dramatically accelerates the timeline for developing increasingly AGI-like systems.
Microsoft Deploys DeepSeek's R1 Model Despite OpenAI IP Concerns
Microsoft has announced the availability of DeepSeek's R1 reasoning model on its Azure AI Foundry service, despite concerns that DeepSeek may have violated OpenAI's terms of service and potentially misused Microsoft's services. Microsoft claims the model has undergone rigorous safety evaluations and will soon be available on Copilot+ PCs, even as tests show R1 provides inaccurate answers on news topics and appears to censor China-related content.
Skynet Chance (+0.05%): Microsoft's deployment of DeepSeek's R1 model despite serious concerns about its development methods, accuracy issues (83% inaccuracy rate on news topics), and censorship patterns demonstrates how commercial interests are outweighing thorough safety assessment and ethical considerations in AI deployment.
Skynet Date (-2 days): The rapid commercialization of models with documented accuracy issues (83% inaccuracy rate) and unresolved IP concerns accelerates the deployment of potentially problematic AI systems, prioritizing speed to market over thorough safety and quality assurance processes.
AGI Progress (+0.04%): While adding another advanced reasoning model to commercial platforms represents incremental progress in AI capabilities deployment, the model's documented issues with accuracy (83% incorrect responses) and censorship (85% refusal rate on China topics) suggest limited actual progress toward robust AGI capabilities.
AGI Date (-1 days): The commercial deployment of DeepSeek's R1 despite its limitations accelerates the integration of reasoning models into mainstream platforms like Azure and Copilot+ PCs, but the model's documented accuracy and censorship issues suggest more of a rush to market than genuine timeline acceleration.
Anthropic CEO Calls for Stronger AI Export Controls Against China
Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei argues that U.S. export controls on AI chips are effectively slowing Chinese AI progress, noting that DeepSeek's models match U.S. models from 7-10 months earlier but don't represent a fundamental breakthrough. Amodei advocates for strengthening export restrictions to prevent China from obtaining millions of chips for AI development, warning that without such controls, China could redirect resources toward military AI applications.
Skynet Chance (+0.03%): Amodei's advocacy for limiting advanced AI development capabilities in countries with different value systems could reduce risks of misaligned AI being developed without adequate safety protocols, though his focus appears more on preventing military applications than on existential risks from advanced AI.
Skynet Date (+3 days): Stronger export controls advocated by Amodei could significantly slow the global proliferation of advanced AI capabilities, potentially extending timelines for high-risk AI development by constraining access to the computational resources necessary for training frontier models.
AGI Progress (-0.03%): While the article mainly discusses policy rather than technical breakthroughs, Amodei's analysis suggests DeepSeek's models represent expected efficiency improvements rather than fundamental advances, implying current AGI progress is following predictable trajectories rather than accelerating unexpectedly.
AGI Date (+2 days): The potential strengthening of export controls advocated by Amodei and apparently supported by Trump's commerce secretary nominee could moderately slow global AGI development by restricting computational resources available to some major AI developers, extending timelines for achieving AGI capabilities.
DeepSeek AI Model Shows Heavy Chinese Censorship with 85% Refusal Rate on Sensitive Topics
A report by PromptFoo reveals that DeepSeek's R1 reasoning model refuses to answer approximately 85% of prompts related to sensitive topics concerning China. The researchers noted the model displays nationalistic responses and can be easily jailbroken, suggesting crude implementation of Chinese Communist Party censorship mechanisms.
Skynet Chance (+0.08%): The implementation of governmental censorship in an advanced AI model represents a concerning precedent where AI systems are explicitly aligned with state interests rather than user safety or objective truth. This potentially increases risks of AI systems being developed with hidden or deceptive capabilities serving specific power structures.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The demonstration of crude but effective control mechanisms suggests that while current implementation is detectable, the race to develop powerful AI models with built-in constraints aligned to specific agendas could accelerate the timeline to potentially harmful systems.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): DeepSeek's R1 reasoning model demonstrates advanced capabilities in understanding complex prompts and selectively responding based on content classification, indicating progress in natural language understanding and contextual reasoning required for AGI.
AGI Date (-1 days): The rapid development of sophisticated reasoning models with selective response capabilities suggests acceleration in developing components necessary for AGI, albeit focused on specific domains of reasoning rather than general intelligence breakthroughs.
SoftBank Negotiating $500M Investment in Robotics Foundation Model Developer Skild AI
SoftBank is reportedly negotiating a $500 million investment in Skild AI, a robotics software company building a foundational model for various types of robots, at a $4 billion valuation. The two-year-old company previously raised $300 million at a $1.5 billion valuation, with investors including Jeff Bezos, and represents part of a broader surge in funding for AI-powered robotics companies.
Skynet Chance (+0.1%): Massive investment in foundation models for physical robots represents a significant step toward AI systems that can both reason and interact with the physical world autonomously. The development of generalized models applicable across robot types increases the risk of unpredictable emergent behaviors in physical systems.
Skynet Date (-3 days): The rapid acceleration of funding in this space (from $1.5B to $4B valuation in less than a year) indicates dramatically increased resources being directed toward embodied AI, potentially accelerating the timeline for physically capable AI systems with real-world agency.
AGI Progress (+0.09%): Foundation models for robotics represent a crucial bridge between abstract reasoning and physical world manipulation, addressing a key limitation in current AI systems. The ability to develop generalized models that can be adapted across different robot types suggests progress toward more general intelligence capabilities.
AGI Date (-3 days): The substantial increase in funding ($500M) and valuation ($4B) represents a significant acceleration in resources directed toward integrating advanced AI with physical systems, likely compressing the timeline for developing key AGI capabilities related to real-world interaction and embodied intelligence.