January 14, 2026 News
OpenAI Secures $10 Billion Multi-Year Compute Deal with AI Chipmaker Cerebras
OpenAI has signed a multi-year agreement worth over $10 billion with AI chipmaker Cerebras to deliver 750 megawatts of compute capacity from 2026 through 2028. The deal aims to provide faster, low-latency inference capabilities for OpenAI's customers, with Cerebras claiming its AI-specific chips outperform traditional GPU-based systems. This partnership strengthens OpenAI's compute infrastructure strategy while Cerebras continues raising capital ahead of its delayed IPO.
Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Increased compute capacity and faster inference capabilities marginally increase the potential for more powerful AI systems to be deployed at scale, though the deal focuses on existing architectures rather than fundamentally new capabilities. The infrastructure expansion does provide more resources for capability advancement but doesn't directly address alignment or control challenges.
Skynet Date (+0 days): The massive compute investment and focus on low-latency real-time inference accelerates the deployment and scaling of advanced AI systems, potentially bringing concerns about powerful AI systems forward in time. However, this is infrastructure expansion rather than a fundamental breakthrough, so the acceleration effect is modest.
AGI Progress (+0.02%): Securing 750 megawatts of dedicated compute capacity represents a significant scaling of resources available for training and deploying advanced AI models, which is a key bottleneck in AGI development. The emphasis on faster inference and real-time capabilities also advances the practical deployment of increasingly capable systems.
AGI Date (+0 days): The $10 billion compute deal spanning multiple years substantially accelerates OpenAI's ability to scale AI systems and experiment with larger models and deployments. This major infrastructure investment removes compute constraints that could otherwise slow AGI timeline, though it's an incremental rather than revolutionary acceleration.
AI Language Models Demonstrate Breakthrough in Solving Advanced Mathematical Problems
OpenAI's latest model GPT 5.2 and Google's AlphaEvolve have successfully solved multiple open problems from mathematician Paul Erdős's collection of over 1,000 unsolved conjectures. Since Christmas, 15 problems have been moved from "open" to "solved," with 11 solutions crediting AI models, demonstrating unexpected capability in high-level mathematical reasoning. The breakthrough is attributed to improved reasoning abilities in newer models combined with formalization tools like Lean and Harmonic's Aristotle that make mathematical proofs easier to verify.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): AI systems autonomously solving high-level math problems previously requiring human mathematicians suggests emerging capabilities for abstract reasoning and self-directed problem-solving, which are relevant to alignment and control challenges. However, the work remains in a constrained domain with human verification, limiting immediate existential risk implications.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The demonstration of advanced reasoning capabilities in a general-purpose model suggests faster-than-expected progress in AI's ability to operate autonomously in complex domains. This acceleration in capability development, particularly in abstract reasoning, could compress timelines for developing systems that are difficult to control or align.
AGI Progress (+0.04%): Solving previously unsolved mathematical problems requiring high-level abstract reasoning represents significant progress toward general intelligence, as mathematics has been a key benchmark for human-level cognitive capabilities. The ability to autonomously discover novel solutions and apply complex axioms demonstrates emerging general problem-solving abilities beyond pattern matching.
AGI Date (-1 days): The breakthrough suggests AI models are progressing faster than expected in abstract reasoning and autonomous problem-solving, key components of AGI. The fact that 11 of 15 recent solutions to long-standing problems involved AI indicates an accelerating pace of capability development in domains previously thought to require uniquely human intelligence.
Skild AI Raises $1.4B at $14B Valuation for General-Purpose Robot Foundation Models
Skild AI, a startup founded in 2023, has raised $1.4 billion in a Series C round led by SoftBank, valuing the company at over $14 billion. The company develops general-purpose foundation models for robots that can be retrofitted to various robots and tasks with minimal additional training, aiming to enable robots to learn by observing humans.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): General-purpose robotic foundation models that can adapt and learn autonomously represent a step toward more capable and less controllable AI systems in physical form. The rapid scaling and massive funding increase the likelihood of deployment before alignment challenges in embodied AI are fully resolved.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The massive $14B valuation and rapid funding acceleration (tripling in 7 months) significantly speeds up development and deployment of adaptive robotic AI systems. This accelerated commercialization timeline pushes potential risks associated with autonomous physical AI systems closer.
AGI Progress (+0.04%): Foundation models for general-purpose robotics that can learn from observation and adapt across tasks represent significant progress toward AGI's physical embodiment and generalization capabilities. The technology addresses a key AGI requirement: learning and transferring knowledge across diverse real-world tasks without extensive retraining.
AGI Date (-1 days): The substantial funding ($1.4B round, $2B+ total) and massive valuation indicate rapid commercialization and development acceleration in embodied AI. This level of investment will significantly speed up the development of general-purpose adaptive AI systems, a crucial component of AGI.