US-China Competition AI News & Updates
Trump Administration Launches AI Action Plan Prioritizing Rapid Development Over Safety Regulations
The Trump administration released an AI Action Plan that shifts away from Biden's cautious approach, prioritizing rapid AI infrastructure development, deregulation, and competition with China over safety measures. The plan emphasizes building data centers on federal lands, reducing environmental regulations, and limiting state AI regulations while focusing on national security and "American values" in AI development.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The plan's emphasis on deregulation and reduced safety oversight while accelerating AI development could increase risks of uncontrolled AI systems. However, the inclusion of some safety provisions like AI interpretability research and security testing provides modest counterbalancing measures.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The aggressive deregulation and infrastructure push could significantly accelerate AI development timelines by removing regulatory barriers and fast-tracking data center construction. The competitive pressure with China may also drive rushed development cycles.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): The plan's massive infrastructure investment, deregulation of AI development, and emphasis on open AI models could substantially accelerate AGI progress by removing bottlenecks. The focus on providing computing resources to researchers and startups particularly supports broader AGI development efforts.
AGI Date (-1 days): The combination of reduced regulatory friction, expanded computing infrastructure, and competitive pressure with China is likely to significantly accelerate the timeline to AGI. The plan's explicit goal to "unleash" AI development through deregulation directly targets speed of advancement.
Anthropic Endorses US AI Chip Export Controls with Suggested Refinements
Anthropic has published support for the US Department of Commerce's proposed AI chip export controls ahead of the May 15 implementation date, while suggesting modifications to strengthen the policy. The AI company recommends lowering the purchase threshold for Tier 2 countries while encouraging government-to-government agreements, and calls for increased funding to ensure proper enforcement of the controls.
Skynet Chance (-0.15%): Effective export controls on advanced AI chips would significantly reduce the global proliferation of the computational resources needed for training and deploying potentially dangerous AI systems. Anthropic's support for even stricter controls than proposed indicates awareness of the risks from uncontrolled AI development.
Skynet Date (+2 days): Restricting access to advanced AI chips for many countries would likely slow the global development of frontier AI systems, extending timelines before potential uncontrolled AI scenarios could emerge. The recommended enforcement mechanisms would further strengthen this effect if implemented.
AGI Progress (-0.04%): Export controls on advanced AI chips would restrict computational resources available for AI research and development in many regions, potentially slowing overall progress. The emphasis on control rather than capability advancement suggests prioritizing safety over speed in AGI development.
AGI Date (+1 days): Limiting global access to cutting-edge AI chips would likely extend AGI timelines by creating barriers to the massive computing resources needed for training the most advanced models. Anthropic's proposed stricter controls would further decelerate development outside a few privileged nations.
Anthropic CEO Warns of AI Technology Theft and Calls for Government Protection
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has expressed concerns about potential espionage targeting valuable AI algorithmic secrets from US companies, with China specifically mentioned as a likely threat. Speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event, Amodei claimed that "$100 million secrets" could be contained in just a few lines of code and called for increased US government assistance to protect against theft.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The framing of AI algorithms as high-value national security assets increases likelihood of rushed development with less transparency and potentially fewer safety guardrails, as companies and nations prioritize competitive advantage over careful alignment research.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The proliferation of powerful AI techniques through espionage could accelerate capability development in multiple competing organizations simultaneously, potentially shortening the timeline to dangerous AI capabilities without corresponding safety advances.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): The revelation that "$100 million secrets" can be distilled to a few lines of code suggests significant algorithmic breakthroughs have already occurred, indicating more progress toward fundamental AGI capabilities than publicly known.
AGI Date (-1 days): If critical AGI-enabling algorithms are being developed and potentially spreading through espionage, this could accelerate timelines by enabling multiple organizations to leapfrog years of research, though national security concerns might also introduce some regulatory friction.
Former Google CEO Warns DeepSeek Represents AI Race Turning Point, Calls for US Action
Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, has published an op-ed calling DeepSeek's rise a "turning point" in the global AI race that demonstrates China's ability to compete with fewer resources. Schmidt urges the United States to develop more open-source models, invest in AI infrastructure, and encourage leading labs to share training methodologies to maintain technological advantage.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Intensifying geopolitical AI competition increases risks of cutting corners on safety as nations prioritize capabilities over caution. Schmidt's framing of AI as a national security issue potentially pushes development toward military applications with less emphasis on safety considerations.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The characterization of a "turning point" in the AI race is likely to accelerate investment and urgency in AI development across nations, potentially compressing timelines for advanced AI systems as competition intensifies and regulatory caution is potentially sacrificed for speed.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): While the article doesn't indicate specific technical breakthroughs, the recognition of DeepSeek's capabilities by a prominent technology leader validates the significance of recent advances in reasoning models. Schmidt's emphasis on catching up acknowledges meaningful progress toward advanced AI systems.
AGI Date (-1 days): Schmidt's call for increased investment and focus on open source AI development, combined with the competitive framing against China, is likely to accelerate resource allocation and development prioritization, potentially shortening timelines to AGI.