Existential Risk AI News & Updates
DeepMind Releases Comprehensive AGI Safety Roadmap Predicting Development by 2030
Google DeepMind published a 145-page paper on AGI safety, predicting that Artificial General Intelligence could arrive by 2030 and potentially cause severe harm including existential risks. The paper contrasts DeepMind's approach to AGI risk mitigation with those of Anthropic and OpenAI, while proposing techniques to block bad actors' access to AGI and improve understanding of AI systems' actions.
Skynet Chance (+0.08%): DeepMind's acknowledgment of potential "existential risks" from AGI and their explicit safety planning increases awareness of control challenges, but their comprehensive preparation suggests they're taking the risks seriously. The paper indicates major AI labs now recognize severe harm potential, increasing probability that advanced systems will be developed with insufficient safeguards.
Skynet Date (-4 days): DeepMind's specific prediction of "Exceptional AGI before the end of the current decade" (by 2030) from a leading AI lab accelerates the perceived timeline for potentially dangerous AI capabilities. The paper's concern about recursive AI improvement creating a positive feedback loop suggests dangerous capabilities could emerge faster than previously anticipated.
AGI Progress (+0.05%): The paper implies significant progress toward AGI is occurring at DeepMind, evidenced by their confidence in predicting capability timelines and detailed safety planning. Their assessment that current paradigms could enable "recursive AI improvement" suggests they see viable technical pathways to AGI, though the skepticism from other experts moderates the impact.
AGI Date (-5 days): DeepMind's explicit prediction of AGI arriving "before the end of the current decade" significantly accelerates the expected timeline from a credible AI research leader. Their assessment comes from direct knowledge of internal research progress, giving their timeline prediction particular weight despite other experts' skepticism.
Anthropic CEO Criticizes Lack of Urgency in AI Governance at Paris Summit
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei criticized the AI Action Summit in Paris as a "missed opportunity," calling for greater urgency in AI governance given the rapidly advancing technology. Amodei warned that AI systems will soon have capabilities comparable to "an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people" and urged governments to focus on measuring AI use, ensuring economic benefits are widely shared, and increasing transparency around AI safety and security assessment.
Skynet Chance (+0.06%): Amodei's explicit warning about advanced AI presenting "significant global security dangers" and his comparison of AI systems to "an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people" increases awareness of control risks, though his call for action hasn't yet resulted in concrete safeguards.
Skynet Date (-2 days): The failure of international governance bodies to agree on meaningful AI safety measures, as highlighted by Amodei calling the summit a "missed opportunity," suggests defensive measures are falling behind technological advancement, potentially accelerating the timeline to control problems.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): While focused on policy rather than technical breakthroughs, Amodei's characterization of AI systems becoming like "an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people" suggests frontier labs like Anthropic are making significant progress toward human-level capabilities.
AGI Date (-2 days): Amodei's urgent call for faster and clearer action, coupled with his statement about "the pace at which the technology is progressing," suggests AI capabilities are advancing more rapidly than previously expected, potentially shortening the timeline to AGI.