Analysis Finds Chinese Frontier Open-Weight Models Trained on Export-Banned Nvidia Blackwell Chips
A researcher examining the weights of open models from DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, MiniMax and Ant Group reports evidence that leading Chinese models such as Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4 were trained on Blackwell GPUs that are banned from export to China. The findings come as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has left the company amid revelations about his relationship with the head of Megaspeed, a firm implicated in chip smuggling. Epoch AI estimates about two million advanced chips reached China in 2024-2025 through concealed channels, and US officials face scrutiny over lax enforcement.
Skynet Chance (+0.03 pp): The apparent failure of export controls signals weak governance over frontier compute and intensifies a US-China race that rewards speed over safety. It also spreads frontier-level training capacity to more actors.
Skynet Date (1 day sooner): Widespread leakage of top-tier chips into Chinese labs speeds frontier capability diffusion and raises competitive pressure, modestly accelerating risk timelines.
AGI Progress (+0.01 pp): The report reveals how already-released Chinese models were trained rather than showing any new capability. It does confirm that more labs have access to frontier compute.
AGI Date (no change): Evidence that compute restrictions are porous means more well-resourced labs are pushing the frontier in parallel. Heightened geopolitical competition also tends to accelerate the overall pace toward AGI.
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