Anthropic Launches Research Program on AI Consciousness and Model Welfare

Skynet Chance (0%): Research into AI welfare neither significantly increases nor decreases Skynet-like risks, as it primarily addresses ethical considerations rather than technical control mechanisms or capabilities that could lead to uncontrollable AI.

Skynet Date (+0 days): The focus on potential AI consciousness and welfare considerations may slightly decelerate AI development timelines by introducing additional ethical reviews and welfare assessments that were not previously part of the development process.

AGI Progress (+0.01%): While not directly advancing technical capabilities, serious consideration of AI consciousness suggests models are becoming sophisticated enough that their internal experiences merit investigation, indicating incremental progress toward systems with AGI-relevant cognitive properties.

AGI Date (+0 days): Incorporating welfare considerations into AI development processes adds a new layer of ethical assessment that may marginally slow AGI development as researchers must now consider not just capabilities but also the potential subjective experiences of their systems.