Policy and Regulation AI News & Updates
Trump Unveils AI Action Plan Prioritizing Industry Growth Over Safety Regulations
President Trump is set to unveil his AI Action Plan, replacing Biden's executive order with a strategy focused on three pillars: infrastructure, innovation, and global influence. The plan emphasizes accelerating AI development by reducing regulatory barriers, speeding data center construction, and combating "woke" AI, while moving away from the safety and security reporting requirements of the previous administration. The approach prioritizes corporate interests and American AI competitiveness over comprehensive safety standards.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): The plan's emphasis on reducing safety regulations and eliminating reporting requirements removes oversight mechanisms that could help identify and mitigate potential AI risks. The focus on accelerating development over safety considerations increases the likelihood of uncontrolled AI advancement.
Skynet Date (-1 days): The deregulatory approach and infrastructure investments will likely accelerate AI development timelines by removing bureaucratic barriers. However, the impact is moderate as the fundamental technological constraints remain unchanged.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): The plan's focus on infrastructure development, energy grid modernization, and removal of regulatory barriers creates more favorable conditions for scaling AI capabilities. The emphasis on global competitiveness and increased data center capacity directly supports the computational requirements for AGI development.
AGI Date (-1 days): The combination of accelerated data center buildouts, streamlined permitting processes, and reduced regulatory friction will likely speed up the pace of AI development. The infrastructure investments address key bottlenecks in energy and computing capacity needed for advanced AI systems.
Nvidia Resumes H20 AI Chip Sales to China Following Rare Earth Element Trade Negotiations
Nvidia has reversed its June decision to withdraw from the Chinese market and will restart sales of its H20 AI chips to China, tied to ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions about rare earth elements. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized that China is only receiving Nvidia's "fourth best" chip technology, not the most advanced capabilities.
Skynet Chance (-0.03%): The export controls and deliberate limitation to "fourth best" chip technology represents continued efforts to maintain technological advantage and prevent advanced AI capabilities from reaching potential adversaries. This suggests ongoing governance and control measures that slightly reduce uncontrolled AI proliferation risks.
Skynet Date (+0 days): The trade restrictions and technological limitations may slow global AI capability development by restricting access to advanced hardware, potentially delaying the timeline for dangerous AI scenarios. However, the impact is modest as alternative supply chains and technologies continue to develop.
AGI Progress (-0.03%): The restriction of advanced AI chips to specific markets and the emphasis on providing only lower-tier technology creates artificial barriers to AI development progress. This fragmentation of the global AI hardware ecosystem may slow overall advancement toward AGI capabilities.
AGI Date (+0 days): Export controls and technological restrictions create supply chain complications and limit access to cutting-edge AI hardware globally, which could decelerate the pace of AI research and development. The ongoing uncertainty around export rules also creates additional friction for AI development timelines.
California Introduces New AI Safety Transparency Bill SB 53 After Previous Legislation Vetoed
California State Senator Scott Wiener introduced amendments to SB 53, requiring major AI companies to publish safety protocols and incident reports, after his previous AI safety bill SB 1047 was vetoed by Governor Newsom. The new bill aims to balance transparency requirements with industry growth concerns and includes whistleblower protections for AI employees who identify critical risks.
Skynet Chance (-0.08%): Mandatory safety reporting and transparency requirements would increase oversight of AI development and create accountability mechanisms that could reduce the risk of uncontrolled AI deployment. The whistleblower protections specifically address scenarios where AI poses critical societal risks.
Skynet Date (+1 days): While the bill provides safety oversight, it represents a significantly watered-down version of previous legislation, potentially allowing faster AI development with minimal regulatory constraints. The focus on transparency rather than capability restrictions may not meaningfully slow dangerous AI development.
AGI Progress (-0.01%): The bill's transparency requirements and potential regulatory burden may create some administrative overhead for AI companies, but the lighter approach compared to SB 1047 suggests minimal impact on actual AGI research and development. The creation of CalCompute public cloud resources may even support some AI development.
AGI Date (+0 days): The bill represents a compromise that avoids heavy-handed regulation that could have significantly slowed AI development, while the CalCompute initiative may actually provide resources that support AI research. The regulatory approach appears designed to avoid hampering California's AI industry growth.
Trump Administration Proposes Higher Tax Credits for US Semiconductor Manufacturing
The Trump administration's spending bill proposes increasing tax credits for chipmakers building US manufacturing plants from 25% to 35%. This measure aims to boost domestic semiconductor production amid ongoing export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China, potentially benefiting companies like Intel, TSMC, and Micron Technology.
Skynet Chance (-0.03%): Increased domestic semiconductor production may improve supply chain security and reduce dependence on foreign chip manufacturing, potentially providing better oversight of AI chip production and distribution.
Skynet Date (+0 days): The policy primarily affects manufacturing economics rather than fundamental AI development speed or safety measures, having minimal impact on the timeline of AI risk scenarios.
AGI Progress (+0.01%): Stronger domestic chip manufacturing capacity could accelerate AI development by ensuring more reliable access to advanced semiconductors needed for training large AI models.
AGI Date (+0 days): Enhanced domestic chip production capacity may slightly accelerate AGI development by reducing supply chain bottlenecks and ensuring consistent access to cutting-edge semiconductors for AI research.
Senate Rejects Federal Ban on State AI Regulation in Overwhelming Bipartisan Vote
The U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove a controversial provision from the Trump administration's budget bill that would have banned states from regulating AI for 10 years. The provision, supported by major Silicon Valley executives including Sam Altman and Marc Andreessen, was opposed by both Democrats and Republicans who argued it would harm consumers and reduce oversight of AI companies.
Skynet Chance (-0.08%): Preserving state-level AI regulation capabilities provides additional oversight mechanisms and prevents concentration of regulatory power, which could help catch potential risks that federal oversight might miss. Multiple layers of governance typically reduce the chances of uncontrolled AI development.
Skynet Date (+0 days): Maintaining state regulatory authority may create some friction and compliance requirements that could slightly slow AI development and deployment. However, the impact on timeline is minimal as core research and development would largely continue unimpeded.
AGI Progress (-0.01%): The preservation of state regulatory authority may create some additional compliance burdens for AI companies, but this regulatory framework doesn't directly impact core research capabilities or technological progress toward AGI. The effect on actual AGI development is minimal.
AGI Date (+0 days): State-level regulation may introduce some regulatory complexity and compliance requirements that could marginally slow commercial AI deployment and scaling. However, fundamental research toward AGI would be largely unaffected by these governance structures.
Anthropic Launches Economic Futures Program to Study AI's Labor Market Impact
Anthropic has launched its Economic Futures Program to research AI's impacts on labor markets and the global economy, including providing grants up to $50,000 for empirical research and hosting policy symposia. The initiative comes amid predictions from Anthropic's CEO that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 20% within one to five years. The program aims to develop evidence-based policy proposals to prepare for AI's economic disruption.
Skynet Chance (-0.03%): This initiative represents proactive research into AI's societal impacts and policy development, which could contribute to better governance and oversight of AI systems. However, the focus is primarily on economic effects rather than existential safety concerns.
Skynet Date (+0 days): The program emphasizes responsible research and policy development around AI deployment, which may lead to more cautious and regulated AI advancement. This could slightly slow the pace toward potentially dangerous AI scenarios.
AGI Progress (0%): This program focuses on economic and policy research rather than technical AI capabilities development. It doesn't directly advance or hinder core AGI research and development efforts.
AGI Date (+0 days): By fostering policy discussions and potential regulations around AI's economic impact, this could lead to more cautious deployment and governance frameworks. Such regulatory considerations might slightly slow the rush toward AGI development.
Pope Leo XIV Positions AI Threat to Humanity as Central Legacy Issue
Pope Leo XIV is making AI's threat to humanity a signature issue of his papacy, drawing parallels to his namesake's advocacy for workers during the Industrial Revolution. The Vatican is pushing for a binding international AI treaty, putting the Pope at odds with tech industry leaders who have been courting Vatican influence on AI policy.
Skynet Chance (-0.08%): High-profile religious opposition to uncontrolled AI development and push for binding international treaties could create institutional resistance to reckless AI advancement. The Vatican's moral authority may help establish global norms prioritizing safety over unchecked innovation.
Skynet Date (+1 days): International treaty negotiations and institutional resistance from religious authorities typically slow technological development timelines. The Vatican's influence on global policy could create regulatory hurdles that decelerate risky AI deployment.
AGI Progress (-0.03%): Religious institutional opposition and calls for binding treaties may create headwinds for AI research funding and development. However, this represents policy pressure rather than technical obstacles, so impact on core progress is limited.
AGI Date (+1 days): Vatican-led international regulatory efforts could slow AGI development by creating compliance requirements and political obstacles for tech companies. The emphasis on binding treaties suggests potential for meaningful policy constraints on AI advancement pace.
Taiwan Imposes Export Controls on Chinese AI Chip Manufacturers Huawei and SMIC
Taiwan has placed Chinese companies Huawei and SMIC on a restricted entity list, requiring government approval for any Taiwanese exports to these firms. This action will limit their access to critical plant construction technologies, materials, and equipment needed for AI semiconductor development, potentially hindering China's AI chip manufacturing capabilities.
Skynet Chance (-0.05%): Export controls that slow AI chip development may reduce the immediate risk of uncontrolled AI advancement by creating technological barriers. However, this could also lead to fragmented AI development with less international oversight and cooperation.
Skynet Date (+1 days): Restricting access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing resources will likely slow the pace of AI capability development in affected regions. This deceleration in hardware progress could delay both beneficial AI advances and potential risk scenarios.
AGI Progress (-0.04%): Limiting access to advanced AI chip manufacturing capabilities represents a significant constraint on compute resources needed for AGI development. Reduced semiconductor access will likely slow progress toward AGI by creating hardware bottlenecks.
AGI Date (+1 days): Export controls on critical AI chip manufacturing resources will decelerate the timeline toward AGI by constraining the compute infrastructure necessary for training advanced AI systems. This regulatory barrier creates meaningful delays in hardware scaling.
New York Passes RAISE Act Requiring Safety Standards for Frontier AI Models
New York state lawmakers passed the RAISE Act, which requires major AI companies like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic to publish safety reports and follow transparency standards for AI models trained with over $100 million in computing resources. The bill aims to prevent AI-fueled disasters causing over 100 casualties or $1 billion in damages, with civil penalties up to $30 million for non-compliance. The legislation now awaits Governor Kathy Hochul's signature and represents the first legally mandated transparency standards for frontier AI labs in America.
Skynet Chance (-0.08%): The RAISE Act establishes mandatory transparency requirements and safety reporting standards for frontier AI models, creating oversight mechanisms that could help identify and mitigate dangerous AI behaviors before they escalate. These regulatory safeguards represent a positive step toward preventing uncontrolled AI scenarios.
Skynet Date (+0 days): While the regulation provides important safety oversight, the relatively light regulatory burden and focus on transparency rather than capability restrictions means it's unlikely to significantly slow down AI development timelines. The requirements may add some compliance overhead but shouldn't substantially delay progress toward advanced AI systems.
AGI Progress (-0.01%): The RAISE Act imposes transparency and safety reporting requirements that may create some administrative overhead for AI companies, potentially slowing development slightly. However, the bill was specifically designed not to chill innovation, so the impact on actual AGI research progress should be minimal.
AGI Date (+0 days): The regulatory compliance requirements may introduce minor delays in AI model development and deployment as companies adapt to new reporting standards. However, given the bill's light regulatory burden and focus on transparency rather than capability restrictions, the impact on AGI timeline acceleration should be negligible.
NVIDIA and AMD Develop Restricted AI Chips for Chinese Market to Comply with US Export Controls
NVIDIA and AMD are developing new AI chips specifically for the Chinese market to comply with US export restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology. NVIDIA plans to sell a stripped-down "B20" GPU while AMD is targeting AI workloads with its Radeon AI PRO R9700, with both companies expected to begin sales in July. NVIDIA reported significant financial impacts from these restrictions, including a $4.5 billion Q1 charge and forecasted $8 billion revenue hit in Q2.
Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Export restrictions may fragment AI development globally, potentially reducing coordination on AI safety standards between major powers. However, the impact on overall AI safety is limited as restrictions target compute access rather than safety mechanisms.
Skynet Date (+1 days): US export controls may slow China's AI development pace by limiting access to cutting-edge compute, potentially delaying global AI capability advancement. The restrictions create barriers that could decelerate the overall timeline for advanced AI systems.
AGI Progress (-0.01%): Export restrictions and the need to develop separate chip variants may fragment research efforts and reduce overall computational resources available for AGI development. This represents a minor setback to coordinated global progress toward AGI.
AGI Date (+1 days): Limiting access to advanced AI chips in China while forcing companies to develop restricted alternatives likely slows the global pace of AGI development. The fragmentation of the AI hardware ecosystem and reduced compute availability create delays in reaching AGI milestones.