Microsoft AI News & Updates
OpenAI Secures $11.9 Billion Computing Deal with CoreWeave
OpenAI has signed a five-year, $11.9 billion contract with cloud provider CoreWeave to secure AI computing resources, while also acquiring a $350 million equity stake in the company. This significant investment comes as CoreWeave prepares for an IPO and maintains deep connections with Microsoft, potentially reshaping the dynamics in the AI cloud computing sector.
Skynet Chance (+0.06%): The massive scale of investment ($11.9 billion) in computing infrastructure signals unprecedented resource allocation toward developing increasingly powerful AI systems, significantly increasing the capability ceiling for future models. This accelerating arms race in compute acquisition suggests development priorities may outpace safety considerations.
Skynet Date (-3 days): OpenAI's enormous compute acquisition represents a dramatic acceleration in the resources available for training advanced AI systems, potentially removing a key bottleneck that had previously constrained development timelines for the most capable AI systems.
AGI Progress (+0.1%): Access to vastly increased computing resources has been consistently correlated with major advances in AI capabilities. This unprecedented $11.9 billion compute investment will likely enable significantly more powerful models and training approaches that directly advance progress toward AGI.
AGI Date (-4 days): The scale of this computing investment ($11.9 billion over five years) represents a dramatic acceleration in the resources being allocated to advancing AI capabilities, likely removing a key limiting factor in the timeline toward developing AGI.
OpenAI Secures $12 Billion GPU Cloud Deal with CoreWeave
OpenAI has signed a five-year, $11.9 billion agreement with GPU cloud provider CoreWeave, including receiving $350 million worth of equity in the company. The deal reduces OpenAI's dependence on Microsoft's cloud services while securing critical compute resources for AI model development, representing another step in the increasingly competitive relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): This massive infrastructure investment demonstrates the extraordinary resources being channeled into advanced AI development, creating an environment where increasingly powerful and potentially unaligned systems can be developed without adequate safety constraints due to competitive pressures between major AI companies.
Skynet Date (-4 days): The securing of massive GPU resources directly addresses OpenAI's compute constraints ("out of GPUs") and significantly accelerates their capability to train more powerful models, potentially shortening the timeline to development of increasingly autonomous and potentially unaligned systems.
AGI Progress (+0.1%): This enormous investment in compute infrastructure directly addresses one of the main bottlenecks to training more powerful AI models, providing OpenAI with substantially expanded capacity to develop increasingly sophisticated systems that approach general intelligence capabilities.
AGI Date (-5 days): The $12 billion investment in GPU compute dramatically increases OpenAI's training capabilities and directly addresses Sam Altman's complaint about being "out of GPUs," removing a key constraint and potentially significantly accelerating the timeline for developing more powerful, AGI-like systems.
Microsoft Develops Competing AI Models As Relationship With OpenAI Grows Tense
Microsoft is actively developing its own AI models, including a family called MAI and reasoning models comparable to OpenAI's o1 and o3-mini. The tech giant is also exploring alternative providers like xAI, Meta, Anthropic, and DeepSeek for its Copilot products, suggesting growing tension with its longtime collaborator OpenAI despite Microsoft's $14 billion investment.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): Increasing competition between major AI developers likely accelerates capability advancement while potentially reducing coordination on safety measures, creating risks that competing entities might prioritize capabilities over alignment to maintain market position.
Skynet Date (-3 days): The intensified competition between Microsoft and OpenAI, along with Microsoft's simultaneous partnerships with multiple AI labs, significantly accelerates the AI arms race dynamic and likely compresses timelines for potentially risky advanced capabilities.
AGI Progress (+0.08%): Microsoft's development of competitive reasoning models and exploration of multiple AI partners indicates substantial progress in capabilities across the industry, with major resources being directed toward advancing frontier AI systems by multiple well-funded entities simultaneously.
AGI Date (-4 days): Microsoft's parallel development of its own advanced models while maintaining relationships with multiple competing AI labs significantly accelerates the competitive dynamics in frontier AI, potentially compressing AGI timelines through increased resources and competitive pressure.
Microsoft Reduces Data Center Footprint Amid Industry Expansion
Microsoft has canceled leases totaling approximately two data centers' worth of capacity with multiple providers. This contraction stands in contrast to significant industry expansion, including the $500 billion Stargate project by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, and raises questions about Microsoft's expectations for future AI demand.
Skynet Chance (-0.03%): Microsoft's scaling back suggests possible moderation in AI infrastructure growth from at least one major player, potentially reducing risks associated with unchecked expansion, though the effect is limited given massive investment by other entities.
Skynet Date (+1 days): Microsoft's reduction in data center capacity might slightly slow the overall pace of AI infrastructure deployment, potentially extending the timeline before computing resources reach levels capable of supporting highly autonomous systems.
AGI Progress (-0.05%): The cancellation of data center leases by a leading AI investor suggests possible recalibration of expectations about near-term AI progress or demand, potentially indicating less optimism about imminent AGI breakthroughs.
AGI Date (+2 days): Microsoft's apparent reconsideration of infrastructure needs could signal a more extended timeline for AGI development, as computing resources are a crucial factor in scaling AI capabilities toward general intelligence.
Microsoft Establishes Advanced Planning Unit to Study AI's Societal Impact
Microsoft is creating a new Advanced Planning Unit (APU) within its Microsoft AI division to study the societal, health, and work implications of artificial intelligence. The unit will operate from the office of Microsoft AI's CEO Mustafa Suleyman and will combine research to explore future AI scenarios while making product recommendations and producing reports.
Skynet Chance (-0.13%): The establishment of a dedicated unit to study AI's societal implications demonstrates increased institutional focus on understanding and potentially mitigating AI risks. This structured approach to anticipating problems could help identify control issues before they become critical.
Skynet Date (+2 days): Microsoft's investment in studying AI's impacts suggests a more cautious, deliberate approach that may slow deployment of potentially problematic systems. The APU's role in providing recommendations could introduce additional safety considerations that extend the timeline before high-risk AI capabilities are released.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): While the APU itself doesn't directly advance technical capabilities, Microsoft's massive $22.6 billion quarterly AI investment and reorganization around AI priorities indicates substantial resources being directed toward AI development. The company's strategic focus on "model-forward" applications suggests continued progress toward more capable systems.
AGI Date (-1 days): The combination of record-high capital expenditures and organizational restructuring around AI suggests accelerated development, but the introduction of the APU might introduce some caution in deployment. The net effect is likely a slight acceleration given Microsoft's stated focus on compressing "thirty years of change into three years."
Microsoft Deploys DeepSeek's R1 Model Despite OpenAI IP Concerns
Microsoft has announced the availability of DeepSeek's R1 reasoning model on its Azure AI Foundry service, despite concerns that DeepSeek may have violated OpenAI's terms of service and potentially misused Microsoft's services. Microsoft claims the model has undergone rigorous safety evaluations and will soon be available on Copilot+ PCs, even as tests show R1 provides inaccurate answers on news topics and appears to censor China-related content.
Skynet Chance (+0.05%): Microsoft's deployment of DeepSeek's R1 model despite serious concerns about its development methods, accuracy issues (83% inaccuracy rate on news topics), and censorship patterns demonstrates how commercial interests are outweighing thorough safety assessment and ethical considerations in AI deployment.
Skynet Date (-2 days): The rapid commercialization of models with documented accuracy issues (83% inaccuracy rate) and unresolved IP concerns accelerates the deployment of potentially problematic AI systems, prioritizing speed to market over thorough safety and quality assurance processes.
AGI Progress (+0.04%): While adding another advanced reasoning model to commercial platforms represents incremental progress in AI capabilities deployment, the model's documented issues with accuracy (83% incorrect responses) and censorship (85% refusal rate on China topics) suggest limited actual progress toward robust AGI capabilities.
AGI Date (-1 days): The commercial deployment of DeepSeek's R1 despite its limitations accelerates the integration of reasoning models into mainstream platforms like Azure and Copilot+ PCs, but the model's documented accuracy and censorship issues suggest more of a rush to market than genuine timeline acceleration.