Startup PSI Uses Anthropic's Fable 5.2 to Prove 18-Year-Old Quantum Computing Conjecture
Physical Superintelligence (PSI) used early access to Anthropic's Fable 5.2 to prove the Aaronson-Ambainis conjecture, a central open problem in quantum query complexity, and verified the proof in Lean. PSI builds specialized scientific harnesses and earns revenue from data-center physics optimization, aiming to turn AI-driven physics breakthroughs into technologies. Scientists are now grappling with norms for AI-generated discoveries.
Skynet Chance (+0.03 pp): AI is producing results that leading experts cannot fully understand, which signals a growing gap in human oversight of superhuman reasoning. This raises concerns about our ability to verify and control future systems.
Skynet Date (1 day sooner): Rapid automation of frontier research shortens the expected time until AI exceeds expert human capability in key domains.
AGI Progress (+0.04 pp): Solving a long-standing central open problem that frontier efforts had not cracked shows a substantial advance in novel, expert-level reasoning. It points to genuine research-level intelligence.
AGI Date (1 day sooner): AI-accelerated scientific discovery, including the prospect of automating theoretical physics, could compound progress and pull AGI timelines forward.
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