2026 Midterms Deliver Broad Voter Backlash Against AI Data Centers, Threatening US Compute Buildout

Skynet Chance (−0.05 pp): Strong public demand for AI rules and newly elected officials pledging to hold AI firms accountable increase the likelihood of oversight and governance. That modestly reduces the odds of uncontrolled AI deployment.

Skynet Date (1 day later): Moratoriums and permitting delays of 12–18 months on a large share of planned 2028 capacity slow compute scaling, which pushes risk timelines somewhat later. The deceleration is partly offset by aggressive buildouts such as SpaceX's and by work moving to other states or abroad.

AGI Progress (−0.03 pp): Constraints on future compute capacity and higher costs for developers hamper the scaling that frontier AI progress depends on. Capacity already under construction or approved through 2027 is unaffected.

AGI Date (1 day later): With roughly two-thirds of 2028 US data center capacity facing potential delays and tighter rules raising costs, the scaling trajectory looks likely to slow. This plausibly pushes AGI timelines later, though competition from China and record-scale private buildouts limit the effect.