DC Circuit Upholds Trump Administration's Blacklisting of Anthropic Over Claude Usage Restrictions
A US appeals court ruled 2-1 that the Trump administration could label Anthropic a supply chain risk under 41 U.S.C. § 4713 because the company limits some Claude features, even though the court accepted that Anthropic had no malicious intent. The blacklisting followed Anthropic's refusal to drop its restrictions on lethal autonomous warfare and on mass surveillance of Americans. This ruling conflicts in effect with a California district court decision that found the designation unlawful, and Anthropic is weighing an en banc review or a Supreme Court petition.
Skynet Chance (+0.03%): The ruling sets a legal precedent that lets the government penalize AI developers for building safety limits into their models, such as refusing lethal autonomous targeting. That weakens incentives for labs to keep guardrails and pushes toward less constrained military AI.
Skynet Date (+0 days): Pressure to remove model restrictions for military use could speed up the deployment of less constrained AI in high-stakes lethal settings. The effect is moderated by the ongoing legal fight and reports that the relationship has been patched up.
AGI Progress (0%): The case is about procurement authority and usage policies, not model capabilities, so it has no direct effect on AGI technical progress.
AGI Date (+0 days): Losing some federal and defense business is unlikely to change Anthropic's research pace or the overall industry's pace toward AGI in a meaningful way.
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