Texas Imposes Mandatory Audits on New Data Centers as Grid Requests Hit 474 GW

Skynet Chance (−0.02 pp): Physical constraints on compute buildout marginally limit the scale of frontier training runs and add a governmental checkpoint on AI infrastructure expansion, slightly reducing the odds of an uncontrolled capability jump. The measure targets grid reliability rather than AI behavior or alignment, so the effect is indirect and small.

Skynet Date (no change): Audit requirements introduce friction and delay into data center siting in one of the largest U.S. compute hubs, modestly pushing back the timeline on which massive compute concentrations become available. Developers can relocate to other states or jurisdictions, limiting the deceleration.

AGI Progress (−0.01 pp): This is a regulatory constraint on the energy and compute substrate underlying frontier model training, not an advance in capabilities, so it represents a mild headwind to scaling-driven AGI progress. The 474 GW queue also signals that demand for AI compute remains enormous, partially offsetting the negative.

AGI Date (no change): Permitting delays and mandatory audits in the second-largest U.S. data center market could slow the pace of compute capacity growth that underpins current scaling timelines. The impact is bounded because much of the queue is speculative paper projects and capital can shift to friendlier jurisdictions.