New York Enacts Temporary Moratorium on Large-Scale Data Centers

Skynet Chance (0%): A localized temporary moratorium on physical data center construction does not inherently alter the fundamental likelihood of AI alignment success or systemic control failures. Therefore, it has a neutral impact on the overall probability of a hostile AI scenario.

Skynet Date (+0 days): By placing regulatory hurdles on compute infrastructure development, this ban could marginally slow the deployment of massive hardware clusters needed for advanced AI. This friction slightly decelerates the pace toward potentially uncontrollable AI capabilities by delaying physical scaling.

AGI Progress (-0.01%): The freeze on large-scale power access represents a minor localized setback for AI developers seeking to rapidly scale up their hardware footprints. It highlights emerging environmental and regulatory bottlenecks that could limit the raw computing power available for training next-generation frontier models.

AGI Date (+0 days): The infrastructure bottleneck introduced by this moratorium marginally delays the timeline for assembling the massive compute clusters vital for achieving AGI. This establishes a precedent of regional pushback that could decelerate the global pace of AGI development if replicated elsewhere.