Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab Secures Major Nvidia Compute Partnership for AI Development

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): Massive compute scaling enables more powerful AI systems, but the focus on reproducible results could marginally improve control and reliability. The net effect is a slight increase in risk due to capability advancement outweighing the reliability focus.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The deployment of gigawatt-scale compute infrastructure accelerates the timeline for developing more capable AI systems that could pose control challenges. This represents significant acceleration in available resources for frontier AI development starting in 2027.

AGI Progress (+0.02%): A multi-billion dollar compute deal enabling gigawatt-scale deployments represents substantial progress in the infrastructure necessary for AGI development. The partnership between a well-funded AI lab and leading chip manufacturer signals serious commitment to advancing frontier AI capabilities.

AGI Date (-1 days): Securing gigawatt-scale compute starting in 2027 significantly accelerates the timeline for AGI by providing the computational resources needed for training increasingly capable models. This level of infrastructure investment suggests AGI development could proceed faster than scenarios without such massive compute availability.