Anthropic Releases Claude 4 Models with Enhanced Multi-Step Reasoning and ASL-3 Safety Classification

Skynet Chance (+0.1%): ASL-3 classification indicates the model poses substantial risks for weapons development, representing a significant capability jump toward dangerous applications. Enhanced reasoning and tool use capabilities combined with weapon-relevant knowledge increases potential for harmful autonomous actions.

Skynet Date (-1 days): Reaching ASL-3 safety thresholds and achieving enhanced multi-step reasoning represents significant acceleration toward dangerous AI capabilities. The combination of improved reasoning, tool use, and weapon-relevant knowledge suggests faster approach to concerning capability levels.

AGI Progress (+0.06%): Multi-step reasoning, tool use, memory formation, and tacit knowledge building represent major advances toward AGI-level capabilities. The models' ability to maintain focused effort across complex workflows and build knowledge over time are key AGI characteristics.

AGI Date (-1 days): Significant breakthroughs in reasoning, memory, and tool use combined with reaching ASL-3 thresholds suggests rapid progress toward AGI-level capabilities. The hybrid reasoning approach and knowledge building capabilities represent major acceleration in AGI-relevant research.