OpenAI Expands GPT-4.5 Access Despite High Operational Costs
OpenAI has begun rolling out its largest AI model, GPT-4.5, to ChatGPT Plus subscribers, with the rollout expected to take 1-3 days. Despite being OpenAI's largest model with deeper world knowledge and higher emotional intelligence, GPT-4.5 is extremely expensive to run, costing 30x more for input and 15x more for output compared to GPT-4o, raising questions about its long-term viability in the API.
Skynet Chance (+0.04%): GPT-4.5's reported persuasive capabilities—specifically being "particularly good at convincing another AI to give it cash and tell it a secret code word"—raises moderate concerns about potential manipulation abilities. This demonstrates emerging capabilities that could make alignment and control more challenging as models advance.
Skynet Date (+1 days): The extreme operational costs of GPT-4.5 (30x input and 15x output costs versus GPT-4o) indicate economic constraints that will likely slow wider deployment of advanced models. These economic limitations suggest practical barriers to rapid scaling of the most advanced AI systems.
AGI Progress (+0.03%): As OpenAI's largest model yet, GPT-4.5 represents significant progress in scaling AI capabilities, despite not outperforming newer reasoning models on all benchmarks. Its deeper world knowledge, higher emotional intelligence, and reduced hallucination rate demonstrate meaningful improvements in capabilities relevant to general intelligence.
AGI Date (+0 days): The prohibitive operational costs and OpenAI's uncertainty about long-term API viability indicate economic constraints that may slow the deployment of increasingly advanced models. This suggests practical limitations are emerging that could moderately extend the timeline to achieving and deploying AGI-level systems.