OpenAI Faces GPU Shortage for GPT-4.5 Rollout

Skynet Chance (+0.05%): The intense compute requirements and extreme pricing of GPT-4.5 demonstrate the rapid scaling of AI systems toward unprecedented capabilities, while also indicating infrastructure constraints are temporarily slowing development pace, creating a mixed but net-positive impact on control risks.

Skynet Date (+1 days): Hardware constraints are actively slowing down deployment of the most advanced AI models, suggesting a temporary deceleration in the pace toward potential Skynet scenarios as compute availability becomes a more significant bottleneck than algorithmic innovation.

AGI Progress (+0.05%): The extreme resource requirements and pricing of GPT-4.5 indicate we're witnessing significant capability scaling that pushes closer to AGI, with OpenAI aggressively pursuing larger models despite diminishing returns, suggesting substantial perceived benefits to scale.

AGI Date (+1 days): The GPU shortage represents a concrete hardware bottleneck that is already delaying deployment of advanced models, suggesting that compute constraints are becoming a real-world factor extending AGI timelines despite aggressive scaling attempts.