Former OpenAI Leaders Launch Thinking Machines Lab to Build More Customizable AI

Skynet Chance (+0.01%): The emphasis on building highly capable frontier models increases potential risks, but the explicit focus on customizability, safety practices, and sharing alignment knowledge provides some counterbalance. Their stated commitment to understanding systems indicates awareness of control issues.

Skynet Date (-1 days): The formation of another highly-credentialed team pursuing frontier capabilities at the limits of AI, particularly with multimodal systems for science and programming, will likely accelerate development timelines toward more advanced systems with potentially unpredictable emergent behaviors.

AGI Progress (+0.03%): The assembly of key technical leaders from OpenAI, including those who helped develop ChatGPT and other breakthrough systems, focusing explicitly on frontier multimodal models represents a significant concentration of talent that will likely drive substantial technical progress toward more AGI-like capabilities.

AGI Date (-1 days): The emergence of another well-funded company founded by architects of today's most advanced AI systems, explicitly focused on frontier capabilities in domains like science and programming, will likely accelerate development timelines through additional competitive pressure and parallel research efforts.